Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 29 August 2018
… Air Mass A Bit More Unstable as Upper Level High Weakens Overhead …
… Isolated Rain Showers and Thunderstorms to our Southeast Today …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure, with clockwise wind circulation, continues over the southeastern USA. To our distant north and northwest, a cold front extends southwestward from surface low over western Illinois into central Missouri into northeastern Oklahoma then southwestward into the northern parts of the Texas South Plains back into northeastern New Mexico then back northwestward into Colorado. A trough, or line, of surface low pressure, with counter clockwise wind rotation, extends southward the front over northeastern New Mexico into southern New Mexico and far west Texas east of El Paso. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are south southeasterly.
On the upper air map… an area of eastward moving upper level low pressure area extends south southwestward from Hudson Bay into the upper Mississippi Valley. General upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, continues from the southwestern US and northern Mexico east northeastward over the southeastern USA and Appalachians with the main upper level high pressure centers within this area over the Appalachians and over northwestern Mexico. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are easterly about 10 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
The main upper level high pressure center has continued to be centered over the Appalachians with another one to our distant west over northwestern Mexico. We are now finding ourselves in a slightly more unstable air mass and short range high resolution model guidance now more confident that a few afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms could develop today in the coastal plains and move northwestward in the more unstable Gulf of Mexico flow. While the chances are very slim, I will include them in the forecast today. Any rainfall, in limited areas to our east, would average 1/10th inch or less with most areas receiving no rainfall.
For tomorrow into the weekend, the rain chances will remain minimal and guidance suggests that I’m safe in keeping them out of the forecast for now.
A more unstable situation does spread (finally) into south central Texas by late in the holiday weekend into Labor Day and the early half of next week. I will include widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast with an associated lightning risk. Rainfall, at this point, of up to a 1/4 inch is possible for this time period but, again, it’s important to remember that most areas will not receive any rainfall.
Afternoon high temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal averages but falling back a little closer to seasonal averages (but still above average) by late week through the weekend into next week with the increased cloud cover.
Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 29 August 2018
TODAY…. Mostly sunny. A widely scattered mid and late afternoon rain shower and/or thunderstorm, with an associated lightning risk, in areas primarily east of the IH35 corridor. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. An widely scattered early evening rain shower and/or thunderstorm, with an associated lightning risk, in areas east of the IH35 corridor. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Otherwise mostly clear. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY…. A few morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY /LABOR DAY/…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 97. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 96. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 05 September 2018 through Tuesday / 11 September 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (29Aug)………………………………………. 7:06 am
Sunset this evening (29Aug)………………………………………… 7:57 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (30Aug)…………………………………………… 7:07 am
Sunset tomorrow (30Aug)……………………………………………. 7:56 pm