Updated 915am CT – Friday / 27 July 2018
… Temperatures Continue Above Seasonal Averages …
… A Cold Front Due with Better Rain Chances Monday Night and Tuesday …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a weakening cold front extends west southwestward across eastern Kentucky and middle Tennessee into northern Mississippi and southern Arkansas into northeast Texas where it becomes a stationary front then continues into west Texas around El Paso then north northwestward across western New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are light and westerly.
On the upper air map… a broad ridge, or line, of upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, is centered over southern California and the desert southwestern USA. An unseasonably strong area of upper level low pressure area extends southward from the Great Lakes into the southeastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are north northwesterly about 10 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
The weaken front, to our north and northeast, will continue to wash out over the next day or so as temperatures will continue be above to well above climatological averages locally through the upcoming weekend.
NWS guidance continues to suggest that another cold front will move southward into Texas by Monday into Tuesday. While guidance has now decreased the rain chances and rainfall amounts a bit, I will continue rain chances for early next week as the front produces atmospheric lift and moves into a more unstable and sufficiently moist air mass. The updated NWS rainfall forecast guidance indicates that most areas of south central Texas will see a beneficial 1/2 inch of rain with this event.
Have a good Friday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]
Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel (Facebook)
—
Updated 845am CT… Friday / 27 July 2018
TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 101. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY….A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with a few lower clouds after midnight. Low 76. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered late afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 99. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage after midnight with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the morning with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Not quite so warm. High 93. Southerly wind shifting north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered evening rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Becoming mostly clear after midnight. Low 74. Light northeasterly wind.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 95. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 71. Light east southeasterly wind.
THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Light southerly wind.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 03 August 2018 through Thursday / 09 August 2018…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (27Jul)………………………………………… 6:47 am
Sunset this evening (27Jul)………………………………………….. 8:28 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (28Jul)…………………………………………….. 6:47 am
Sunset tomorrow (28Jul)……………………………………………… 8:27 pm