Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 03 July 2018
… Rain Chances Increase …
… Slightly Drier by the Weekend …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a westward moving low pressure disturbance is located over southern Louisiana. Surface high pressure is located to our northeast over Arkansas with another located over the central Rockies and central plains states. Between the two surface high pressure areas, a trough, or line, of low pressure extends southward from western Kansas and eastern Colorado into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are south southeasterly.
On the upper air map… a broad trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southwestward from southwestern and south central Canada into the northwestern USA. A broad ridge, or line, of upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, extends eastward from the central and southern plains into the Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions into the northeastern USA. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are light and variable.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
Guidance continues to indicate that an atmospheric disturbance will move westward from the extreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico and the coastal areas of Louisiana into southeast Texas by tonight to affect our local area by tomorrow into Thursday. Although guidance is still not as consistent run to run or atmospheric model to atmospheric model as I’d like to see it, I will keep the moderate rain chances, including the possibility of thunderstorms, beginning tomorrow. Forecast rainfall guidance amounts, at this point, for Wednesday into Thursday night still are showing 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches locally.
A drier weather pattern unfolds with rain chances decreasing (although not disappearing) Friday through next weekend.
Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
Follow me:
@troykimmelwx (Twitter)
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel (Facebook)
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Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 03 July 2018
TODAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 102. South southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with low clouds developing around 11pm. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY / 4TH OF JULY/…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 91. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 74. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 89. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rain occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rain occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 93. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rain occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rain occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 94. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rain occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rain occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 94. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rain occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 10 July 2018 through Monday / 16 July 2018…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (03Jul)………………………………………… 6:34 am
Sunset this evening (03Jul)………………………………………….. 8:37 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (04Jul)…………………………………………….. 6:35 am
Sunset tomorrow (04Jul)……………………………………………… 8:37 pm