Updated 915am CT – Monday / 21 May 2018
… Slim Chance of Rain As We Start the Week …
… A Mostly Dry Seven Day Forecast Ahead …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a weakening cold front extends from a surface low over northern Missouri into northwestern Arkansas where it becomes stationary and extends southwestward into north central Texas and then westward into far west Texas near El Paso. High pressure, to the east, is centered over the Carolinas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are light and variable.
On the upper air map… upper level low pressure disturbances are over south Texas as well as over the southeastern USA. A deeper trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southward from British Columbia across Washington, Oregon and California. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are west southwesterly at 30 to 40 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
In the wake of the weakening cold front and passing upper disturbances, that triggered scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night, it looks like a drier and more stable weather pattern as we begin our new week. Lingering effects from the passing upper air low pressure disturbance over south Texas will result in widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms today with rain chances diminishing after sunset tonight.
A dry and stable summer like weather pattern will prevail tomorrow through the remainder of the week and pretty much through the weekend.
Of note, however, is a weak area of low pressure that is expected to move north northwestward from the western Caribbean Sea into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico by mid week. Atmospheric models are in disagreement in where the system moves beyond that with some suggesting the eastern Gulf and the Florida coast while others, suggesting movement toward the Louisiana or Mississippi coast. According to the NWS/National Hurricane Center, there are some indications that the system could become better organized by mid week and beyond. In any case, the system stays well east of our local area, so I will keep the seven day forecast beyond today and tonight dry.
Forecast rainfall amounts, over the next seven days, for south central Texas will range from nothing to as much as 1/10th of an inch. Tying that to my local forecast, I think that would mainly occur mainly today into tonight.
Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
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http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Monday / 21 May 2018
TODAY…. Some morning low clouds and a sprinkle or two, otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 91. Light wind becoming south southeasterly at 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms before 8pm with an associated lightning risk. A 10% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 70. Southeasterly wind4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds and a sprinkle or two, otherwise partly cloudy. High 92. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 71. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 93. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 94. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with low clouds late. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 95. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with low clouds late. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High 96. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with low clouds late. Low 72. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 28 May 2018 through Sunday / 03 June 2018…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (21 May)………………………………………… 6:34 am
Sunset this evening (21 May)………………………………………….. 8:22 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (22 May)…………………………………………….. 6:33 am
Sunset tomorrow (22 May)……………………………………………… 8:22 pm