Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 02 May 2018
… Clouds and Muggy Conditions Continue …
… Best Rain and Stronger Thunderstorm Chances Late Week into Saturday …
… Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern Returns Late Weekend into Next Week …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure is to our distant east off the southeastern coast of the USA over the western Atlantic Ocean basin. Within a trough, or line, of surface low pressure, a cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southward into central Iowa into central Kansas and Colorado into a developing surface low over southeastern Utah. The cold front continues from the low southward to along the New Mexico and Arizona state line and into northern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are south southeasterly.
On the upper air map… a ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Ohio Valley region. A deep, potent upper level low pressure area, within a broad trough, or line, of low pressure over the western half of the USA, is located over western Arizona. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly 40 to 45 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
In advance of the dynamic upper level low pressure area to our distant west, a moist and increasingly unstable air mass continues to build across Texas.
A few sprinkles along with a few rain showers and thunderstorms will continue in the forecast through tomorrow before precipitation chances peak late Thursday night into Friday and Friday night as a weak cold front and the associated upper air low pressure disturbance moves eastward over Texas. Although I feel that the best instability and dynamics will likely be to our north, NWS/Storm Prediction Center meteorologists are highlighting local areas for a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday with the best chance locally of stronger thunderstorms being Friday into Friday night. NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance has trended a little lower on forecast rainfall but is still suggesting upwards of 1 to 1 1/2 inches of rain over the next seven day period with most of it coming in the Friday through early Saturday time period.
In the wake of the cold front Friday into Friday night, rain chances will taper off as slightly drier and more stable air spreads over the area Saturday into Saturday night.
As a result, I expect this return to sunshine Sunday into the early part of next week.
Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 02 May 2018
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles as well as widely scattered rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 86. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 85. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY…. A cloudy sky with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, as a cold front passes by late afternoon. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 81. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming north northeasterly late in the afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky and a little cooler with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch with isolated higher totals. Low 63. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, in the morning. Rain chances decreasing midday into the afternoon. A 40% chance of rain in the morning decreasing to 20% by late afternoon; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 80. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 60. Light northeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 84. Light north northeasterly wind.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 60. Light southeasterly wind becoming calm after midnight.
MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 63. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 88. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 09 May 2018 through Tuesday / 15 May 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (02 May)………………………………………… 6:47 am
Sunset this evening (02 May)………………………………………….. 8:10 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (03 May)…………………………………………….. 6:46 am
Sunset tomorrow (03 May)……………………………………………… 8:10 pm