Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 17 April 2018
… Storm System with Rain Chances Friday into Saturday …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure is situated over the Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure storm system continues to get better developed over the intermountain west and the western Rockies with a cold front extending south into Arizona and northwestern Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly.
On the upper air map… two strong upper level low pressure storm systems are located over the USA.. one over the eastern Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River Valley and the other from Montana southward into Arizona. A ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from Texas through the central plains. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 30 to 40 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
Abundant sunshine will prevail today with southerly winds increasing over the area.
A relatively weak cold front will move through our area by tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Moisture and instability will be limited so I will not mention any rain chances.
A second and more potent upper level low pressure disturbance and associated stronger cold front will approach the area beginning Friday and will finally move through the area by late Saturday into Saturday night. Current guidance suggests that more than sufficient moisture return along with plenty of instability in place over our area as this system moves through. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning Friday afternoon into Friday night before peaking Saturday into Saturday evening as the system moves eastward overhead. Current indications are that we’ll see a few stronger thunderstorms, with a possible hail and stronger straight line thunderstorm wind threat, for Saturday into Saturday evening. In addition, NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests an inch or rain will fall, on average, across the area.
Once the cold front passes Saturday night, skies will clear with plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions for Sunday.
Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 17 April 2018
TODAY…. Sunshine. High 84. Southerly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog otherwise partly cloudy as a weak cold front passes in the afternoon. High 83. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting north northeasterly in the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 59. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 80. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more easterly by afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly cloudy after 11pm. Low 61. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk in the afternoon. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 80. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 78. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more southwesterly by afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the evening. A 50% chance of rain in the evening with rain chances decreasing thereafter; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low 58. Southwesterly wind becoming northwesterly 8 to 15 mph by evening as the front passes.
SUNDAY…. Sunshine and less humid. High 77. Northerly winds 8 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 57. Light north northeasterly wind.
MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 78. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming easterly by afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 24 April 2018 through Monday / 30 April 2018…
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 April)………………………………………. 7:01 am
Sunset this evening (17 April)………………………………………… 8:00 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 April)…………………………………………… 7:00 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 April)……………………………………………. 8:01 pm