Updated 915am CT – Monday / 16 April 2018
… A Dry Start to the Week …
… Storm System Returns Rain Chances Friday and Saturday …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure is situated over the US central plains. A low pressure storm system is getting better developed over the intermountain west with a cold front extending south into southern California. A strong low pressure storm system is over North Carolina. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are light and variable.
On the upper air map… two strong upper level low pressure storm systems are located over the USA.. one over the southern Great Lakes and the other over the Pacific northwest. A ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from northern Mexico into New Mexico and Colorado. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 40 to 45 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
Abundant sunshine with prevail as we start our new week with warmer temperatures in place over the next few days.
A relatively weak cold front will move through our area by Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Moisture and instability will be limited so I will not mention any rain chances.
A second and more potent upper level low pressure disturbance and associated stronger cold front will approach the area beginning Friday and will finally move through the area by Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Current guidance suggests sufficient moisture return along with plenty of instability in place over our area as this system moves through. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning Friday and Friday night before peaking Saturday into Saturday night as the system moves eastward overhead. Current indications are that we’ll see a few stronger thunderstorms, with a possible hail and stronger straight line thunderstorm wind threat, for Saturday into Saturday evening. In addition, NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests an inch or rain will fall, on average, across the area.
Once the cold front passes Saturday night, skies will clear with plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions for Sunday.
Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Monday / 16 April 2018
TODAY…. Sunshine. High 80. Light wind becoming southerly and increasing to 10 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 58. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 86. Southerly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy as a weak cold front passes in the afternoon. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting north northeasterly in the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 59. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 81. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more easterly by afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly cloudy after 11pm. Low 62. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 80. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 78. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more southwesterly by afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the evening. A 60% chance of rain before 10pm with rain chances decreasing thereafter; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low 58. Southwesterly wind becoming northwesterly 8 to 15 mph by evening as the front passes.
SUNDAY…. Sunshine and less humid. High 77. North northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 23 April 2018 through Sunday / 29 April 2018…
Temperatures… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 April)………………………………………. 7:02 am
Sunset this evening (16 April)………………………………………… 7:59 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 April)…………………………………………… 7:01 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 April)……………………………………………. 8:00 pm