Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #5
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
850pm CT – Tuesday / 03 April 2018

… Severe Thunderstorm Watch Cancelled for the IH35 Corridor and the Austin Metro Area …
… Cold Front has Moved Southward Through the Area …

At 845pm, the cold front has passed southward through the Austin area and, as predicted, has ended the risk of severe thunderstorms.

Unfortunately, a rain cooled boundary ahead of the front undercut the developing thunderstorms we saw trying to build earlier and that combined with some more stable air aloft to keep most areas dry as the front pushed southeastward over the area. There was no severe weather in the late
afternoon and evening hours with the severe thunderstorm watch being cancelled by the NWS at 802pm.

This is my last statement on this weather event.


Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #4
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
555pm CT – Tuesday / 03 April 2018

… Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued for the Austin Metro Area and the IH35 Corridor Until 12 Midnight (Main Risk for Our Area will Exist Only into the 8pm Hour when the Cold Front Moves Through the Area and the Severe Weather Risk Will End) …

… Main Risks: Large Hail.. Damaging Thunderstorm Winds as well as Frequent Dangerous Cloud-to-Ground Lightning …

2018.0403.2250z.SVRTstormWatch 29.DZ5JlNiX4AA7eeW

Continuing to Monitor…


Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1045am CT – Tuesday / 03 April 2018

… Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued for Williamson County and Counties Westward UntilĀ  600pm …

This issuance is for thunderstorms forming in advance of an upper air low pressure disturbance over southwest Texas. These thunderstorms are moving northeastward.

The cold front is still back over the Texas Panhandle and will not move through our area until sometime this evening with another line or area of thunderstorms moving through out area.

Continuing to monitor…


Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
720am CT – Tuesday / 03 April 2018

.. Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Later Today into this Evening with Passing Cold Front ..

Hazards Expected for the Area (and Time Periods) …
.. Larger hail, damaging straight line wind threat and a very slim tornado threat 12 noon today to 8pm tonight ..
.. Due to the progressive (quick moving) nature of the system, rainfall should average 1/4 inch or less with some isolated heavier totals. I do not anticipate any flood problems.. other than some brief urban issues as the thunderstorms move through.. with this system.

Current NWS Watches / Advisories / Warnings ….
There are no current NWS watches, advisories and/or warnings in effect for our IH35 corridor counties..
I think that it is likely that a severe weather watch will be needed at some point later this afternoon or early tonight for our IH35 corridor counties.

Weather Discussion ….
A strong upper level low pressure disturbance and associated surface cold front will move across our area by the dinner hour this evening. The atmosphere, ahead of the upper air disturbance/front, will become unstable and will be sufficiently moist for scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms to develop. The latest high resolution model guidance suggests a few thunderstorms develop in advance of the front in the northern
parts of our area as early as midday into early afternoon today.. these thunderstorms, in advance of the front, could be severe with a large hail and damaging wind threat. More widespread rain showers and thunderstorms.. likely in a line formation ahead of the front.. will develop after 4pm and will sweep east southeastward just in advance of the front by the dinner hour. The cold front will move through the area by 9pm today with the risk of severe
weather hazards ending.

Aviation Weather Information for the
Austin Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) Aerodrome and Associated Hubs ….
Rain showers and thunderstorms will increase by late afternoon into early this evening as a cold front crosses the area. NWS/Austin-San Antonio issued Airport Weather Warnings are likely in the 4pm to 8pm time period with the cold front forecast to cross the Austin Bergstrom International Airport aerodrome by 9pm tonight…

Likelihood of Commercial Hub Diversions/Reroutes..
DAL/DFW Aerodromes and ZFW Airspace.. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms (a 20% chance of rain) are possible today as the cold front moves across the north Texas aerodromes by mid afternoon.
HOU/IAH Aerodromes and ZHU Airspace.. Rain showers and thunderstorms become likely over the area by late afternoon into tonight (a 40% chance of rain later today increasing to 90% by evening/nighttime hours) with severe thunderstorms possible. Some reroutes and diversions are possible especially this evening into the nighttime hours before the cold front completes its
movement through the southeast Texas area by late tonight.

Current KAUS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) – Issued 031140z ..

 KAUS 031140Z 0312/0418 17012KT P6SM SCT015
       TEMPO 0312/0316 BKN015
      FM031800 19012KT P6SM VCTS OVC015CB
      FM032300 01013KT P6SM VCTS OVC030CB
       TEMPO 0400/0403 4SM TSRA
      FM040700 01015G25KT P6SM OVC050=

Current FAA National Airspace Status


Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.


I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf to the National Weather Service, please let me know at


NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center