Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 27 March 2018
… Rain Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Increasing Today …
… Heavier Rain and Strong Thunderstorm Threat Mid Week …
… A Cooler and Less Humid Pattern with Sunshine Returning by Late Week …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a developing low pressure system is over eastern New Mexico with a cold front extending southward into far west Texas near El Paso. A stationary front extends eastward from the surface low into central and southern Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are east southeasterly.
On the upper air map… a deep low pressure trough, or a “line” of low pressure, extends south southeastward from west of Hudson Bay into the southwestern USA with a strong upper level low embedded in the trough over Arizona. A ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from the northern Gulf of Mexico to over the St. Lawrence River Valley. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly 55 to 65 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
With the approach of the upper level low pressure storm system and the associated surface cold front, we’ll see rain and thunderstorm chances increasing by later today into tonight as well as tomorrow and tomorrow night. With abundant lift developing in a much more unstable atmosphere, rain chances will rise dramatically with the possibility of periods of heavier rain along with a risk of severe thunderstorms by tonight late through tomorrow. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has posted a “slight” risk of severe thunderstorms, with the main risks being larger hail and damaging straightline thunderstorm winds, for the time period from late tonight into early tomorrow. The latest guidance from the NWS/Weather Prediction Center continues to suggest that rainfall in the time period between now and afternoon Thursday will average between 1 to 2 inches with some isolated higher totals especially to the northeast of the Austin metro area.. a beneficial rain that our area does need.
Once the cold front moves through the area by afternoon tomorrow and the upper air storm system clears the area by early Thursday, we’ll see rain chances decrease with sunshine returning Thursday and continuing through Friday and our upcoming weekend. Temperatures and humidity will drop back in the wake of the initial cold front as well as a secondary cold front early Friday.
For Friday through the weekend, it looks like plenty of sunshine with temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages.
Another stronger cold front will approach the area by early Monday with the front moving quickly southeastward through Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico. Rain chances look minimal as this system moves through with some lingering clouds in the wake of the front along with cooler temperatures.
Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 27 March 2018
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, in the morning then becoming more numerous in the afternoon. A 30% chance of rain in the morning increasing to 50% by afternoon; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 83. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. An 80% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and a little cooler with rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes by midday. A 90% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly by midday.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. Low 56. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Some clouds and a few sprinkles before 9am.. otherwise mostly sunny and less humid. High 77. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more northeasterly in the afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 54. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northwesterly late.
FRIDAY…. Sunshine as a secondary cold front moves through the area in the morning. High 76. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 52. Light northerly wind becoming calm late.
SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 81. Light northeasterly wind becoming southeasterly in the afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 59. Light southeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 81. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 62. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and turning cooler as a cold front moves through the area. A few sprinkles possible. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. High 74. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting north northwesterly at 8 to 15 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 03 April 2018 through Monday / 09 April 2018…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (27 March)………………………………………. 7:26 am
Sunset this evening (27 March)………………………………………… 7:47 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (28 March)…………………………………………… 7:25 am
Sunset tomorrow (28 March)……………………………………………. 7:48 pm