Updated 915am CT – Friday / 23 February 2018
… A Warming Trend Through Tomorrow …
… Unsettled Weather Pattern and Rain Chances Continue …
… Weather Pattern Turns More Stable Late in the Weekend into Next Week …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a stationary front, marking the edge of surface based shallow arctic cold air mass, extends south southwestward from east Texas to along the Texas coast to near McAllen then into northern Mexico. Overhead of the Austin area, the wedge of surface based cooler air is, as a result, growing more and more shallow and is only about 1000 feet thick. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are light and variable or light easterly.
On the upper air map… the broad deep trough, or line, of counter clockwise rotating upper air low pressure continues out west and has moved little. Its axis extends southwestward from west of Hudson Bay into southern California and adjoining areas of the Baja Peninsula. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly 70 to 80 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
The surface based colder air is now growing more and more shallow.. only up to just above 1000 feet above the ground.. as the stationary front to our southeast turns into a warm front and shifts northwestward as the warm and deep moisture flow off the Gulf of Mexico returns.
All of this is occurring as the upper air low pressure (counter clockwise rotating) trough to our distant west, sends upper air disturbances eastward into what is still a warm and moist air mass above the cooler based surface air.
As a warm front passes back north of the area by later today into tonight, much warmer conditions returning. Remember that upper level disturbances will be continuing to move east northeastward overhead with rain and thunderstorm chances continuing as well.
By tomorrow, yet another cold front will sweep through the area with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms expected.
Once this front moves through, I expect rain chances to decrease (not to completely disappear) with even some breaks in the clouds Sunday into the earliest part of next week. Temperatures, which will cool a few degrees in the wake of the Saturday cold front, will slowly warm once again by the first part of the new week.
We’ll see another cold front move through the area by the latter part of next week with rain and thunderstorm chances returning.
Precipitation over our south central Texas region, over the next seven day period, will average somewhere in the 1/4 to 3/4 inch range.
Have a good Friday and a safe weekend..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Friday / 23 February 2018
TODAY…. Cloudy and warmer with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 70. Light east southeasterly wind becoming south southeasterly in the afternoon.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes in the afternoon. A 60% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 73. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming west northwesterly by afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy and cooler with a few lingering rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. Low 48. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY…. Isolated rain showers early. Partly cloudy. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. High 65. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming easterly in the afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 46. Light east northeasterly wind.
MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 70. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more southeasterly by afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 50. Light wind.
TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 70. Light south southeasterly wind.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 56. Light southeasterly wind.
WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes by late afternoon. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northerly by late afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Decreasing clouds becoming partly cloudy and a little cooler. Low 53. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny and less humid. High 68. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 02 March 2018 through Thursday / 08 March 2018…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23 February)………………………………….. 7:03 am
Sunset this evening (23 February)……………………………………. 6:26 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (24 February)………………………………………. 7:02 am
Sunset tomorrow (24 February)……………………………………….. 6:26 pm