Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #3
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
745am CT – Wednesday / 21 February 2018
.. Morning Update ..
What can I say? My forecast has gone completely “bust” in the overnight hours with
precipitation very limited while the temperature forecast has been a bit closer to what was
being forecast. What you read here is my forecast but I use the computer forecast models
as a tool in preparing it. Over the last 12 to 24 hours through 7am this morning, in my opinion,
the atmospheric computer models as well as even the National Weather Service guidance…
pretty much all of it… have failed miserably, as far as precipitation coverage and amounts are
concerned. Nothing even close to reality locally. As a result, in at least the forecast for the
overnight hours into early today, I have failed you. However, please remember that weather
forecasting is not a perfect science; I’ll promise that I’ll try to learn from this and do better
in the future.
OK.. let me step back and try again and look ahead today into tonight into tomorrow.
Yes, rainfall is still in the forecast!!
Colder surface based air, very shallow in nature, has taken over all of south central
Texas with the front now south of the IH10 corridor. The upper level low continues to the west
and will, over the next 24 to 36 hours (through tomorrow), continue to eject disturbances overhead.
As a result, clouds will remain a factor as the overrunning pattern with rain showers and even a
few thunderstorms becoming more numerous over the area.
Rainfall today into tonight will average an inch or less over the area, with isolated heavier totals.
Rainfall for tomorrow (Thursday) into tomorrow night will average 1/2 to 1 inch with some isolated
heavier totals. Heavier rainfall amounts will occur, of course, in areas where thunderstorms are more
That’s it for now. Please remember that the dangerous lightning risk with any thunderstorm
I’ll get back with you with any additional changes..