Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
735am CT – Tuesday / 20 February 2018
.. Dynamic and Changing Weather Pattern to Result in Prolonged Period of Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain/Potential Localized Flooding Problems ..
Hazards Expected and Time Periods (My Confidence) …
…. Frequent Dangerous Cloud-to-Ground Lightning During Periods of Thunderstorms Today Through Tomorrow (HIGH CONFIDENCE) ….
…. Prolonged Periods of Heavy Rain, Especially Overnight Tonight into Tomorrow with Accumulated Rainfall, May Result in Localized Flooding Problems (MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE) ….
Current NWS Watches / Advisories / Warnings ….
There are no current NWS watches, advisories and/or warnings in effect for our IH35 corridor counties..
Weather Discussion ….
A complex weather situation is unfolding over the area. On the surface weather map, a strong surface cold front is moving slowly south southeastward from the southern Texas panhandle into central Oklahoma.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deepening trough, or line, of low pressure extends southwestward from Hudson Bay into the southwestern USA. Abundant low level moisture, with a significant depth and
amount of gulf moisture, has returned northward into the area.
With the approach of the surface cold front and low pressure disturbances breaking loose in the counter clockwise rotating area of upper air low pressure out west, atmospheric lift is increasing in the very moist and increasingly unstable air mass overhead. As a result, rain shower and thunderstorms will be numerous over the area by later today through tonight and tomorrow. Low water crossings will likely see some effects from the
heavy rainfall by tonight into tomorrow with other localized urban problems possible as well. The dry conditions over the past several months should keep this rainfall, for the most part, very beneficial.
The surface cold front will move through our area by afternoon tomorrow and this may reduce the intensity of the rain shower and thunderstorm activity although rain chances will continue with the primary upper level low pressure trough remaining to the west.
According to NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance, severe weather risk with this weather pattern is rather low at this point but we can never rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm or two.
Our greatest threat will be that of heavy rainfall. Current NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests upwards of 2 to 3 inches of rain, on average, across our area over the next seven day period. Some isolated greater totals are possible.. especially to the northeast of the IH35 corridor counties.
—
Aviation Weather Information for the
Austin Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) Aerodrome and Associated Hubs ….
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorms affecting the aerodrome. NWS/Austin-San Antonio will be issuing airport weather warnings as a result of the lightning threat.
Note that some small hail could accompany strong thunderstorms.
Heavy rain will likely cause some localized urban flooding problems around the ABIA area /southeastern Austin metro area tonight into tomorrow.
Likelihood of Commercial Hub Diversions/Reroutes..
DAL/DFW Aerodromes and ZFW Center Airspace..
Thunderstorms will be likely today through tomorrow with some diversions possible from
aerodromes and and possible reroutes in ZFW Center airspace.
HOU/IAH Aerodromes and ZHU Center Airspace..
Thunderstorm coverage will be increasing from the west today with thunderstorms likely tonight through tomorrow with some diversions possible from aerodromes and possible reroutes in ZHU Center airspace.
Current KAUS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) – Issued 1132z Today ..
FTUS44 KEWX 201132
TAFAUS
TAF
KAUS 201132Z 2012/2118 17015KT P6SM -RA OVC022
TEMPO 2014/2018 5SM -TSRA OVC014CB
FM201800 17016KT 5SM -SHRA OVC012
FM202300 18013KT P6SM OVC035
FM210800 16005KT 4SM -TSRA BKN025CB
FM211000 01010G20KT 5SM SHRA BR OVC015=
Current FAA National Airspace Status
—
CALL TO ACTION:
Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.
Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.
FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:
I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf
to the National Weather Service, please let me know at [email protected]
GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center
tk