Updated 915am CT – Friday / 16 February 2018
… Cold Front Today with Clouds and Rain Chances Persist …
… Clouds and Better Thunderstorm Chances for Early/Mid Parts of Next Week …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a southward moving cold front is located from the Missouri bootheel through northern and eastern Arkansas into a surface low in extreme southeastern Oklahoma. The cold front continues into north and central Texas then into west Texas and northern and central New Mexico. Surface high pressure is to our east over Florida. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are light southerly.
On the upper air map… a broad trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southwestward from Hudson Bay into southern California and the northern Baja Peninsula. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are west southwesterly 50 to 60 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
The area of upper air low pressure out west and the associated surface cold front, just to our northwest, will move across Texas by midday and afternoon today. Clouds and rain chances will persist as the system passes. The clouds and rain chances will persist behind the front tonight and tomorrow into Sunday and into the new week. Temperatures will slowly warming by Sunday into early next week. As temperatures warm, we’ll see a more unstable environment develop with more rain showers and thunderstorms for Monday into Tuesday.
Precipitation will peak as another upper level low pressure disturbance and cold front moves into the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with clouds and precipitation continuing in an “overrunning” pattern after the cold front passes.
NWS Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall, during the Monday through Wednesday time period, will average between 1/2 and 1 1/2 inch.
Have a good Friday and a safe weekend..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Friday / 16 February 2018
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 69. Southwesterly wind becoming westerly in the morning then north northeasterly 8 to 15 mph by midday and afternoon.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered patches of rain. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 47. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered patches of rain. A 50% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 57. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered patches of rain. Patchy fog after midnight. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average a few hundredths of an inch. Low 50. East northeasterly wind becoming light after midnight.
SUNDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Cloudy and a little warmer with scattered patches of rain and a few rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 69. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered patches of rain and a few rain showers. Light drizzle and patchy fog developing late. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 60. Light south southeasterly wind.
MONDAY…. Cloudy and a little warmer with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 61. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and turning a little cooler with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes. A 80% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 50. Southerly wind becoming northerly 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and much cooler with rain showers and isolated thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 54. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 41. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 55. Light northeasterly wind becoming light east southeasterly wind by late afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 23 February 2018 through Thursday / 01 March 2018…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 February)………………………………….. 7:10 am
Sunset this evening (16 February)……………………………………. 6:20 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 February)………………………………………. 7:09 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 February)……………………………………….. 6:21 pm