Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 14 February 2018
… Clouds and Rain Chances Persist …
… Cold Front Friday with Clouds and Rain Chances Through the Weekend …
… Clouds and Better Rain and Thunderstorm Chances for Next Week …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure is the Carolinas with a northwestward moving warm front just offshore of the Texas coast. A developing low pressure area is over southeastern Colorado with a cold front extending southwestward into New Mexico and southeastern Arizona. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are light and variable.
On the upper air map… a rather zonal, or west to east, upper level wind pattern has developed over the lower 48 states with a low pressure disturbance off the coast of southern California. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly 45 to 55 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
As the upper air low pressure disturbance to our distant west moves slowly east southeastward, the surface cold front out in the Gulf of Mexico, that moved through our area midday on Saturday, is trying to return back northward in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico just off the Texas coast. As moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to flows up and over the surface based colder air (we call it “overrunning”), clouds and rain chances continue across the area into tomorrow. Temperatures will warm back above seasonal averages by tomorrow. The latest NWS Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests 1/4 inch or rain or less for our local area for the time period.
The upper air low pressure disturbance out west and associated surface cold front will move across Texas by tomorrow afternoon. Clouds and rain chances will persist as the system passes tomorrow into tomorrow night. The clouds and rain chances will persist in the post frontal environment Saturday through Sunday and into the new week with temperatures slowly warming by Sunday into early next week. As temperatures warm, we’ll see a more unstable environment develop with more rain showers and thunderstorms for Monday into Tuesday.
NWS Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests rainfall during this period will be 1/4 to 1/2 inch.
Another upper level low pressure disturbance and cold front moves into the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with clouds and precipitation continuing even after the cold front passes.
Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Wednesday / 14 February 2018
TODAY…. Patchy fog. Cloudy and a little warmer with widely scattered rain showers. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 66. Light wind early becoming south southeasterly and increasing to 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy. Light drizzle and patchy fog redeveloping after midnight. Low 59. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Light drizzle and patchy fog in the morning. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy and much warmer. High 78. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog developing late. Low 59. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm with an associated lightning risk in areas mainly east of along and east of the IH35 corridor as a cold front passes by midday into early afternoon. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 69. Southwesterly wind becoming westerly in the morning then north northeasterly 8 to 18 mph by afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and colder with scattered patches of rain. A 40% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 42. North northeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph.
SATURDAY…. Cloudy and colder with scattered patches of rain. A 50% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 53. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered patches of rain. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average a few hundredths of an inch. Low 45. East northeasterly wind becoming light after midnight.
SUNDAY…. Cloudy and a little warmer with a few patches of rain. A 20% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average trace amounts. High 65. Light wind becoming southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few patches of rain. Light drizzle and patchy fog developing late. A 20% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average trace amounts. Low 55. Light south southeasterly wind.
MONDAY…. Cloudy and a little warmer with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 58. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 21 February 2018 through Tuesday / 27 February 2018…
Temperature… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (14 February)………………………………….. 7:12 am
Sunset this evening (14 February)……………………………………. 6:19 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (15 February)………………………………………. 7:11 am
Sunset tomorrow (15 February)……………………………………….. 6:20 pm