Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 06 February 2018
… Cold Front Slips Through Early …
… Precipitation Chances Increase with Upper Air Disturbance …
… Breaks in Clouds Wednesday Night into Thursday Night …
… Rain Chances Return Late Week Through the Weekend …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure, in the wake of a cold front that has passed through the area a little earlier than expected in the overnight hours, is centered over northwestern Iowa. The southeastward cold front extends from central Mississippi southeastern Texas and then westward into southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are northerly.
On the upper air map… a broad trough, or line, of low pressure extends from Hudson Bay over much of the USA. Within the counterclockwise flow around the low, a stronger upper air disturbance is located over the Rockies into the southwestern USA. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 55 to 60 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
Cooler air has settled southward over the area earlier than expected in the wake of a cold front now pushing southeastward to the southeast of the area. Clouds have thickened and lowered as an overrunning pattern unfolds over south central Texas in advance of the upper level low pressure disturbance to our northwest. Light rain and drizzle will continue with rain showers and even a few thunderstorms as the system gets closer into early tomorrow. Current short range high resolution model data and NWS guidance suggests that rainfall tonight through tomorrow and tomorrow night will average 1/2 inch or less.
As the initial disturbance moves east of the area, clouds and rain chances will decrease by late Wednesday into Thursday.
Another series of upper level disturbances and a cold front will approach the area by late Saturday with clouds and increasing/thickening clouds and higher rain chances appearing as early as Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation amounts, during this period, will average 1/4 inch or less.
In the wake of the front Saturday afternoon, clouds and rain chances will persist Saturday night into Sunday and into the new week along with cooler temperatures.
Have a good Tuesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Tuesday / 06 February 2018
TODAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with light drizzle and numerous rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 49. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy with light drizzle and numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 37. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers into early and mid afternoon. A 50% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Decreasing clouds by late in the afternoon. High 45. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 37. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 58. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more easterly in the afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Increasing and thickening clouds becoming mostly cloudy. Low 45. Light easterly wind early becoming more southeasterly after midnight.
FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer. High 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers developing. Some patchy fog developing. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average only a few hundredths of an inch. Low 52. Light south southeasterly wind.
SATURDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Cloudy with widely scattered rain showers as a cold front moves through the area in mid to late afternoon. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average trace amounts. High 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northwesterly by late afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and a little cooler with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average a few hundredths of an inch. Low 45. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average a few hundredths of an inch. High 54. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average a few hundredths of an inch. Low 42. Light northeasterly wind.
MONDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average a few hundredths of an inch. High 56. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 13 February 2018 through Monday / 19 February 2018…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Near Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (06February)………………………………….. 7:18 am
Sunset this evening (06February)……………………………………. 6:12 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (07February)………………………………………. 7:17 am
Sunset tomorrow (07February)……………………………………….. 6:13 pm