Updated 915am CT – Monday / 05 February 2018
… An Unsettled Weather Pattern Over the Coming Week …
… Precipitation Chances Increase with Another Cold Front Tuesday Night …
… Rain Chances On and Off All the Way Through the Weekend …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure, in the wake of the cold front that passed through the area in the overnight hours, is centered over the Missouri and Kentucky. The cold front has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and northeast Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are northerly.
On the upper air map… a broad trough, or line, of low pressure extends from Hudson Bay over much of the USA. Within the counterclockwise flow around the low, upper air disturbances are located over the Tennessee Valley and the Appalachians with another one over the Rockies into the southwestern USA. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are west northwesterly 40 to 50 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
Cooler air has settled southward over the area in the wake of the cold front that passed over our area late last night. Clouds have thickened and lowered as an overrunning pattern unfolds over south central Texas in advance of the upper level low pressure disturbance to our northwest and an associated cold front. By late tonight into early tomorrow as the weather system out west gets closer, we’ll see some light rain and drizzle and patchy fog develop. As the system gets closer during the day tomorrow into tomorrow night, the rain chances will increase with even a few thunderstorms possible. Current short range high resolution model data and NWS guidance suggests that rainfall tonight through tomorrow and tomorrow night will average 1/2 inch or less.
Another cold front will pass through the area by late tomorrow night into the predawn hours Wednesday morning. Temperatures will cool a bit again in the wake of the front. Clouds and rain chances will linger behind the front a bit until we see some partial clearing by late Wednesday into Thursday.
Another series of upper level disturbances and a cold front will approach the area by late Saturday with clouds and increasing/thickening clouds and higher rain chances appearing as early as Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation amounts, during this period, will average 1/4 inch or less.
In the wake of the front late Saturday, clouds and minimal rain chances will persist Saturday night into Sunday along with cooler temperatures.
Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Updated 845am CT… Monday / 05 February 2018
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy and cooler. High 54. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more east southeasterly by late afternoon.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy with patchy rain and drizzle developing late. Some patchy fog developing. A 30% chance of rain; where rain occurs, it will average less than 1/10th inch. Low 51 around midnight with temperatures slowly rising thereafter. Light southeasterly wind.
TUESDAY…. Cloudy and warmer with scattered rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 68. Light southeasterly wind early becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and turning cooler with numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes after midnight. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 45. South southwesterly wind early shifting north northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers into early and mid afternoon. A 50% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/10th inch or less. Decreasing clouds late in the afternoon. High 54. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 38. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 63. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more easterly in the afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Increasing and thickening clouds becoming mostly cloudy. Low 45. Light easterly wind early becoming more southeasterly after midnight.
FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer. High 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers developing. Some patchy fog developing. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average only a few hundredths of an inch. Light southeasterly wind. Low 52. Light south southeasterly wind.
SATURDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Cloudy with widely scattered rain showers as a cold front moves through the area in mid to late afternoon. A 20% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average trace amounts. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northwesterly by late afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and a little cooler with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average a few hundredths of an inch. Low 45. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average a few hundredths of an inch. High 54. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 12 February 2018 through Sunday / 18 February 2018…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (05 February)………………………………….. 7:19 am
Sunset this evening (05 February)……………………………………. 6:11 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (06 February)………………………………………. 7:18 am
Sunset tomorrow (06 February)……………………………………….. 6:12 pm