Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 15 November 2017
.. A Stable Weather Pattern ..
.. Our Next Cold Front Has Slowed A Bit and Now Due on Saturday ..
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure is located over the northeastern USA with deepening lower pressure extending southward from the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into southwest Texas. A cold front is found within the low pressure trough from a surface low over Wisconsin into northwestern Missouri into central and western Oklahoma then southwestward across the Texas south plains and then west northwestward into northeastern New Mexico and Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.
On the upper air map… the zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind pattern is buckling a bit with a low pressure disturbance east of Maine.. another deepening from the upper Mississippi Valley into the plains states.. and a third low pressure trough deepening from offshore of British Columbia southward to offshore of the USA west coast. Upper air high pressure has weakened at bit and settled more southwestward and is now centered over western areas of Mexico and the Baja Peninsula. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are northwesterly 70 to 75 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
A southerly surface wind continues over the area with late night and early morning low cloudiness evident over the area. We should see the clouds break a bit for the afternoon hours today with warmer temperatures. Those low clouds will return late tonight and continue into the morning hours Thursday.
A weak cold front will approach the area by tomorrow morning with slightly cooler temperatures. A few rain showers may accompany the weak cold frontal passage. As quickly as the front settles into the area, it will wash out overhead or just to our southeast and return back northward as a warm front with south southeasterly winds returning by tomorrow night.
After tomorrow, the next cold front, stronger in nature, has slowed down a bit based on the latest manual and computer weather guidance. It now looks like the front will pass around midday or early afternoon Saturday. As mentioned yesterday, the air mass, in advance of the front, will be fairly stable and will have dried out a bit on Friday with a more southwesterly wind. As a result, I do not expect any precipitation as the front moves through.
A breezy and cooler weather pattern will be in place once the front passes Saturday with skies clearing. Daytime highs falling back to slightly below seasonal averages.
A return south southeasterly wind will return by Monday into Tuesday of next week with warmer temperatures settling in once again in the days before Thanksgiving.
Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 15 November 2017
TODAY…. Patchy morning fog. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 81. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low clouds and patchy fog and drizzle developing after midnight. The chance of rain is 20%; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average trace amounts. Low 65. Light east southeasterly wind.
THURSDAY…. Patchy morning fog and drizzle. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers as a cold front passes in the morning. The chance of rain is 30%; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/10th inch or less. High 77. Light easterly wind becoming north northeasterly 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early. Low clouds and patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 64. Light northeasterly wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph late.
FRIDAY…. Patchy morning fog. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm. High 84. South southwesterly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 67. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. Turning windy and cooler as a cold front passes midday into early afternoon. High 76. Southwesterly wind becoming northerly 15 to 25 mph and gusty by afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear and colder. Low 45. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph decreasing after midnight.
SUNDAY…. Sunshine. Cooler. High 65. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 39. Light northeasterly wind.
MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 68. Light wind becoming east southeasterly by late afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 47. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph after midnight.
TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny and a bit warmer. High 73. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 22 November 2017 through Tuesday / 28 November 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (15 November)………………………………. 6:57 am
Sunset this evening (15 November)………………………………… 5:34 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (16 November)…………………………………… 6:58 am
Sunset tomorrow (16 November)……………………………………. 5:34 pm