Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 31 October 2017
.. Much Cooler with Rain Chances Through Early Tomorrow ..
.. Much Warmer Temperatures Mid/Late Week through Weekend ..
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a weakening cold front extends southwestward from central Mississippi and central Louisiana into a surface low over east Texas. From the surface low, the front continues southwestward through the Texas coastal plains to near Laredo into northeastern Mexico when the front then extends northwestward to south and southwest of the Texas Big Bend. Surface high pressure is east of the area over southern Alabama and Georgia and northern Florida. Behind the cold front, surface high pressure is over central Kansas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are northerly.
On the upper air map… a broad trough, or line, of upper air low pressure stretches southward from Canada across the USA. Within the broad counterclockwise flow around the upper air low pressure area, there are embedded upper air low pressure disturbances.. one is located over New Mexico and is moving eastward while another one, moving southeastward, is over central California. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are west southwesterly 50 to 60 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
Another cold front moved southeastward through the area around midnight last night and is expected to pull up stationary south of our area along the Texas coast later today as much cooler surface temperatures continues across our area. As the series of upper level low pressure disturbances approaches from the west and moves overhead later today through tonight and early tomorrow, an overrunning pattern will become established with rain showers and even a few thunderstorms beginning later today and continuing through early tomorrow. Current NWS guidance continues to indicate 1/2 to 1 inch of rain, on average, locally through early tomorrow.
As the series of upper level low pressure disturbances departs the area and the stationary from to our south returns northward as a warm front, we’ll see rain chances decrease quickly and the clouds breaking to partly cloudy tomorrow morning.
Even another weak cold front moves into north Texas and becomes stationary, I expect a dry and more stable weather pattern to develop area wide Wednesday through the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. In addition, with the increased sunshine, we’ll see afternoon high temperatures warm to well above seasonal levels.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 31 October 2017
TODAY…. Cloudy and much cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk after 2pm. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 63. North northwesterly 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers likely. A few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 51. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light overnight.
WEDNESDAY…. A few rain showers before 9am. Decreasing clouds becoming partly cloudy and warmer. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 80. Light wind becoming south southwesterly 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 63. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny and much warmer. High 87. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 66. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High 87. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 66. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High 86. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 67. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 86. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 67. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 86. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 07 November 2017 through Monday / 13 November 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (31 October)………………………………….. 7:45 am
Sunset this evening (31 October)……………………………………. 6:44 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (01 November)…………………………………… 7:45 am
Sunset tomorrow (01 November)……………………………………. 6:43 pm