Updated 915am CT – Monday / 10 July 2017
.. A Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continues ..
On the Weather Map…
On the surface weather map this Monday… a weakening stationary front extends westward from central Georgia into central Alabama and central Mississippi and southern Arkansas. Surface high pressure is east of the area over the Gulf of Mexico with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward from eastern Colorado and western Kansas through west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a broad upper air low pressure trough, or line of low pressure, extends from Hudson Bay south southeastward through the Great Lakes and into the eastern USA. Another trough is situated from British Columbia southward to just offshore the Washington and Oregon coasts. Between the two troughs, an upper level high pressure area.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. is centered over Arizona and the four corners region. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are easterly 10 to 20 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
Even with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to our east over southeast Texas on this Monday morning, there will be little change in the overall stable weather pattern for south central Texas and the Austin metro area over the next few days. While a few towering clouds are possible primarily in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor today into this evening, the rain chances are less than 20% for any given location. Beyond today, the atmosphere will become more stable as the upper level high to the west settles eastward and acts like a “cap” on the atmosphere.
By the weekend into next weeks, longer range computer model and manual forecast guidance suggests that the upper level high pressure will settle back northwestward. This will allow for better moisture flow off of the Gulf of Mexico as a cold front settles southward into Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. As a result, I think we’ll see increased cloud cover and better rain chances beginning late Saturday night and continuing Sunday into the new week.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 10 July 2017
TODAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. A few towering afternoon clouds. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. South southeasterly winds 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. South southeasterly winds 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 76. South southeasterly winds 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 17July 2017 through Sunday / 23 July 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (10 July)……………………………………………. 6:37 am
Sunset this evening (10 July)……………………………………………… 8:36 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (11 July)………………………………………………… 6:37 am
Sunset tomorrow (11 July)…………………………………………………. 8:35 pm