Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1245pm CT – Sunday / 28 May 2017
.. A Weak Cold Front Progressing Southward Across Texas ..
.. A Few Strong Thunderstorms Likely this Afternoon into Tonight ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances, Along with Lightning Risk, Continues into the New Week ..
Hazards Expected and Time Periods (My Confidence) …
…. Larger hail threat – between 2pm and 10pm today and tonight (medium confidence)
…. Strong straight line thunderstorm wind threat – between 2pm and 10pm today (low to medium confidence)
…. Tornado threat – between 2pm and 10pm today (low confidence)
…. Lightning threat – after 2pm today and continuing tonight into Memorial Day (very high confidence)
…. Flood threat – after 5pm through the nighttime hours tonight – mainly urban/small stream (low to medium confidence)
Current NWS Watches / Advisories / Warnings ….
There are no current NWS watches, advisories and/or warnings in effect for our IH35 corridor counties..
Given the “slight” risk outlook area currently over our area, if conditions materialize as
expected, I would anticipate a watch from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center being eventually
issued for parts of our south central Texas area sometime in the 2pm to 10pm time period today.
Weather Discussion ….
At midday on this Sunday.. a cold front is pressing southeastward and is located along a line
from west of Texarkana to just southeast of the DFW metroplex to near Lampasas to Llano
and then to south of Junction.
Ahead of the front, plenty of gulf moisture is combining with strong atmospheric instability
to set the stage for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as the frontal lift increases with
the surface front and an associated upper level low pressure disturbance moving through the area.
The cold front should pass the local area by late this afternoon into early evening tonight with the
threat of stronger thunderstorms decreasing thereafter.
Clouds and rain shower and thunderstorm activity will continue in the post frontal environment
tonight through tomorrow (Memorial Day) as the front weakens and starts to shift back northward
as a warm front. Bottom line, lightning will continue to be a daily hazard for much of the coming week
as a typical late spring weather pattern prevails as weak upper level disturbances move west-to-east
overhead.
—
Aviation Weather Information for the
Austin Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) Aerodrome and Associated Hubs ….
Given the weak cold frontal boundary expected in our area later this afternoon into tonight, scattered
rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, are expected over or
in the vicinity of the KAUS aerodrome this afternoon into tonight with stronger
thunderstorms possible.
The front is expected to pass southeastward to the Texas coastal plains by late tonight into
tomorrow; even so, post frontal rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
locally, with an associated lightning risk, through tomorrow (Memorial Day) through much
of the upcoming week.
Likelihood of Hub Diversions..
DAL/DFW Aerodromes and ZFW Airspace..
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms (50% rain) today decreasing to widely scattered
(20% rain) tonight. Some diversions and ZFW reroutes are possible mainly this afternoon into
the mid evening hours tonight.
HOU/IAH Aerodromes and ZHU Airspace..
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms (30% rain) today increasing to scattered to
numerous (60%-80% rain) late tonight into the early morning hours tomorrow. Although
there will be lull in air traffic by the time the rain shower and thunderstorm chances peak
after midnight tonight, it is likely we’ll see some diversions and ZHU reroutes especially in
the morning hours tomorrow.
Current KAUS Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) – Issued 281735z ..
FTUS44 KEWX 281735
TAFAUS
TAF
KAUS 281735Z 2818/2924 18007KT P6SM BKN035 BKN250
FM282000 13008KT P6SM VCTS BKN035CB BKN100
FM282300 03010KT 4SM -TSRA BR OVC025CB
TEMPO 2900/2902 VRB15G25KT 2SM TSRA OVC015CB
FM290400 02010KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC010
FM291000 35008KT P6SM OVC008
FM291700 07007KT P6SM BKN015 BKN120=
Current FAA National Airspace Status
—
CALL TO ACTION:
Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service (see links
below).
Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.
FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:
I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions or if you have a storm report that I can forward on your behalf
to the National Weather Service, please let me know at tkimmel@troykimmelweather.com
GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center
tk