Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 25 April 2017
.. A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues ..
.. A Weak Cold Front Due Tomorrow ..
.. A Stronger Cold Front with a Chance of Thunderstorms by Next Weekend ..
On this Tuesday… an eastward moving surface high pressure is located over the cental and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Surface low pressure area is developing from western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle into southeastern Colorado with a trough, or line, of low pressure southwestward into New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deepening trough.. or line of upper level low pressure.. is moving eastward from Montana and the intermountain west southwestward into the southwestern USA with another center of east northeastward moving upper level low pressure over the Carolinas. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are westerly at 25 to 35 mph.
Southerly surface winds have returned as the surface high pressure moves eastward through the Gulf of Mexico. Low level moisture, as evidenced by our morning low clouds, has returned and will continue to do so into tomorrow.
A cold front and dry line will advance eastward deep into Texas by tomorrow with a dry frontal passage expected. Winds will shift northwesterly with drier air moving into the area with afternoon highs continuing well above normal. Temperatures lows tomorrow night will be cooler again simply due to the drier air place.
The change to drier air will be very temporary as the front returns back north northwesterly over the area by late tomorrow. Low level moisture returns quickly to the area by late Wednesday night into Thursday.
As a dynamic area of upper air low pressure moves eastward through the southwestern USA into the southern and central plains by late Friday into Saturday, a stronger area of surface low pressure and associated cold front will advance quickly into Texas. The cold front will pass through the local area before sunrise on Sunday. With low level moisture in place along with instability and atmospheric lift accompanying the system, the latest guidance from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center suggests prefrontal thunderstorms over the area with stronger, potentially severe, thunderstorms mainly in areas to our north over north Texas and Oklahoma.
A drier.. more stable and a cooler air mass will move into Texas in the wake of the front for most of the day Sunday through Sunday night into early next week.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 25 April 2017
TODAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny and warmer. High 90. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TONIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny as a weak cold front passes. High 88. Southerly winds 8 to 18 mph becoming north northwesterly.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 54. North northwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light after midnight.
THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 86. Wind becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. Unseasonably warm with a high of 92. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming cloudy late. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 89. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight, with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.. winds becoming more southwesterly after midnight then northwesterly toward daybreak.
SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 7am with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes before daybreak. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Clearing.. less humid and a little cooler morning through the afternoon. High 75. Northwesterly 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear and unseasonably cool. Low 50. North northwesterly 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 78. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more east northeasterly by afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 02 May 2017 through Monday / 08 May 2017…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (25 Apr)……………………………………………. 6:53 am
Sunset this evening (25 Apr)……………………………………………… 8:05 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (26 Apr)………………………………………………… 6:52 am
Sunset tomorrow (26 Apr)…………………………………………………. 8:06 pm