Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 23 March 2017
.. Our Atmosphere Turning More Unstable …
.. Thunderstorm Chances Increase Ahead of a Cold Front Tomorrow ..
.. A Less Humid Saturday with Plenty of Sunshine ..
.. Another Storm System with a Chance of Thunderstorms Early/Mid Next Week ..
On this Thursday… a developing surface low pressure storm system is over Colorado with a northward moving warm front extends east southeastward through central Oklahoma to over the ArkLaTex region then east southeastward to along the Mississippi coast. A cold front extends south southwestward from the Colorado surface low through western New Mexico and then in northwestern Mexico. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deep trough of low pressure extends southward from western Utah and eastern Nevada southward into northern Mexico. To the east of the trough, the upper level high pressure that has been in place over our area is weakening and retreating eastward. As a result, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are increasing and are westerly at 40 to 50 mph.
With the upper level high pressure area now weakening and having moved east of our local area, our atmosphere continues to moisten and become more unstable with the approach, as expected, of the strong upper air Pacific low pressure disturbance. As this upper level system moves eastward, a strong, dynamic surface low pressure area is developing over southern Colorado and will push eastward, with an attendant surface cold front, late tonight into tomorrow. As the atmospheric lift and instability progresses eastward across our area, rain shower and thunderstorm activity will increase after midnight tonight, with some strong thunderstorms, by daybreak tomorrow morning and picking up in coverage Friday into Friday afternoon as the cold front sweeps eastward across our area. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center outlook continues to suggest the possibility of a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat especially in areas northeast of our local area.
This weather system will be quite progressive – that is quickly moving – so precipitation will taper off quickly and skies will clear in the wake of the cold front by mid to late afternoon tomorrow as slightly cooler and drier air moves into the area from the west and northwest. In the wake of the front, surface high pressure will settle southward into Texas on Saturday with a great day with abundant sunshine.
Another low pressure area will develop quickly to our distant northwest by Saturday night into Sunday with a southerly low level wind returning with an increase in clouds by Sunday into Monday.
Our next low pressure storm system and attendant cold front appears in Texas by the early to middle part of next week with thunderstorm chances returning as early as Tuesday.
Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 23 March 2017
TODAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. some low clouds after midnight. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southerly winds 8 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, in the morning with rain chances increasing to likely by afternoon. Some stronger thunderstorms possible with a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat mainly east and northeast of Austin. A 40% chance of rain through 12 noon then increasing to 70% by midday and early afternoon; rainfall with average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Decreasing clouds and less humid in the wake of the cold front by mid and late afternoon. High around 80. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming westerly then west northwesterly by mid and late afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and cooler. Low 56. Northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 81. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming light east northeasterly by late afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear through midnight with a few low clouds developing after midnight. Low 59. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly after midnight.
SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. A bit warmer and more humid. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 62. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 63. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 63. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk as a cold front passes. A 50% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 81. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming northwesterly in the afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 30 March 2017 through Wednesday / 05 April 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23 Mar)……………………………………………. 7:31 am
Sunset this evening (23 Mar)……………………………………………… 7:44 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (24 Mar)………………………………………………… 7:30 am
Sunset tomorrow (24 Mar)…………………………………………………. 7:45 pm