Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 07 March 2017
… A Cold Front Passing with Rain Chances This Morning …
… Cooler Temperatures Tonight into Tomorrow …
… A More Unsettled Weather Pattern by Late Week into the Weekend …
On this Tuesday… a cold front extends from central and eastern Arkansas southwestward through the ArkLaTex region then into the northern areas of south central Texas then westward into far west Texas and southwestern New Mexico. Surface high pressure, behind the front, is centered from northwest Texas and Oklahoma west northwest to the Great Salt Lake basin. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are light southerly becoming northerly with the passing cold front.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends southward from just southwest of Hudson Bay through the central USA. As a result, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are west southwesterly at 75 to 85 mph.
As we make our way through our Tuesday morning, a cold front is moving southeastward through the area. So far, rain showers and thunderstorms have been slow to develop ahead of the front although we’ll continue to see the chance until the front moves south of the area by midday into early afternoon today.
A drier and slightly cooler air mass will take hold, in the wake of the front, for tonight into Wednesday. As the surface high pressure area moves east of the area by tomorrow afternoon, the surface wind returns south southeasterly locally.
As these southerly low level winds return, a corresponding low level moisture return takes place late week into and through the weekend. However, with a more zonal (think, west-to-east) forecast upper air wind pattern, I do not see any big air mass changes through Saturday and Saturday night. Clouds will increase with a few rain showers for late week then a better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms by Friday through Sunday morning ahead of an approaching upper air low pressure disturbance and surface cold front.
The developing and passing upper air disturbance and associated cold front will move across the area by Sunday morning with cooler temperatures and a more stable air mass taking hold Sunday night into the first part of next week.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
—
Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 07 March 2017
TODAY…. Patchy morning fog.. otherwise mostly cloudy with widely scattered morning into midday rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes southeastward through the area with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Becoming partly cloudy and less humid in the afternoon. High 77. Southwesterly wind shifting north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy and cooler. Low 51. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 72. Light northeasterly wind becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 mph by mid and late afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. A 20% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. A 20% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 66. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 78. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 78. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk through the morning hours. Partly cloudy, cooler and less humid in the afternoon. A 30% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 73. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph shifting north northwesterly 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and cooler. Low 54. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 76. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 14 March 2017 through Monday / 20 March 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (07 Mar)……………………………………………. 6:50 am
Sunset this evening (07 Mar)……………………………………………… 6:34 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (08 Mar)………………………………………………… 6:49 am
Sunset tomorrow (08 Mar)…………………………………………………. 6:35 pm