Updated 915am CT – Friday / 17 February 2017
… Sunshine with a Warming Trend into the Weekend …
… Another Storm System with Rain Chances Late Sunday into Next Week …
On this Friday… a surface high pressure area is over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure trough.. or line of low pressure.. extends southward from eastern Colorado through eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are light southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad upper level though.. or line of upper level low pressure.. extends southward along the eastern USA seaboard with another trough offshore of the west coast. Another strong upper level low pressure disturbance is over southwestern Oklahoma and north central Texas. Our upper level winds, at about 30,000 feet overhead, are west southwesterly 40 to 50 mph.
In the wake of an upper air disturbance that is moving east of the area now, a dry and stable weather pattern will persist across the area today through tomorrow. Temperatures will be warming with highs warming well above seasonal averages by tomorrow.
The next strong upper air disturbance, located over the eastern Pacific Ocean off the California west coast, will take aim at Texas and the southern plains with low level moisture really increasing by late tomorrow through tomorrow night through Sunday. As the system gets closer, we’ll see atmospheric lift and instability increase with a few sprinkles as early as tomorrow night and then widespread rain and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday. The latest NWS guidance suggests we’ll see, on average, 1 to 2 inches of rain over the area as the system passes. There is a slim risk of severe thunderstorms over our area on Sunday, according to the NWS/Storm Prediction Center, but I look for the severe weather risk to be quite marginal and the rainfall should be very beneficial given the dry month we’ve seen so far.
Once the weather system passes by Tuesday, we’ll see clouds and rain chances diminish with partly cloudy and warmer conditions for the middle and latter part of next week.
Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 17 February 2017
TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 75. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 56. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Patchy morning fog.. otherwise mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High 85. South southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Thickening clouds with a few sprinkles after midnight. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average trace amounts. Low 60. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms in the morning. Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain in the morning increasing to 70% in the afternoon; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 to 3/4 inch. High 76. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A near 100% chance of rain; rainfall will average 3/4 to 1 1/2 inch. Low 62. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwesterly after midnight.
MONDAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk through midday. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon. A 60% chance of rain in the morning decreasing to 30% during the afternoon; where rainfall occurs, it will average an additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Southwesterly wind becoming north northwesterly 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. A few rain showers in the evening. A 20% chance of rain early; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Slowly decreasing clouds after 11pm becoming partly cloudy after 3am. Low 55. Light north northwesterly wind.
TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 73. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 54. Light northeasterly wind.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 77. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeasterly.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 52. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 79. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 24 February 2017 through Thursday / 02 March 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 Feb)……………………………………………. 7:09 am
Sunset this evening (17 Feb)……………………………………………… 6:21 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 Feb)………………………………………………… 7:08 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 Feb)…………………………………………………. 6:22 pm