Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 31 January 2017
… A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues …
… A Weak Cold Front Due Late Tomorrow Night into Early Thursday …
… A More Unsettled Weather Pattern and Cold Front By Late Next Weekend …
On this Tuesday… a weakening cold front extends westward from southern Kentucky into northern Arkansas and Oklahoma then turning northwestward into eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure from northern Oklahoma southwestward into southwest Texas. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are south southwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad trough, or line, of upper level low pressure cover the eastern half of the country extending southward from Hudson Bay down across the Great Lakes and into the southeastern USA. A ridge, or line, of higher surface pressure extends northward from the southwestern USA into the intermountain west. An upper level low pressure area weakening as it moves eastward through northern Mexico. Our upper level winds, at about 18,500 feet overhead, are northwesterly 20 to 30 mph.
A dry and stable weather pattern continues as we continue into the new week.
The upper level low over western Mexico is weakening and will be pushing eastward over northern Mexico and far south Texas over the next few days. Low level moisture will begin to increase by tonight into Wednesday as the southerly surface winds become a bit more pronounced. Evidence of that will be some late night and early morning patchy fog as early as late tonight into the early morning hours tomorrow.
A southeastward moving weak cold front will move into the area between midnight Wednesday night and daybreak Thursday morning. As it does, some patchy fog and low cloudiness will develop. The real question with this front will be exactly how far south it gets before the front washes out. Early indications suggest that it will not move very far southeast of the IH35 corridor before it weakens on Thursday morning. The effect will be slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday.
Winds return south southeasterly by Thursday night into Friday with warmer temperatures returning. By Friday night into Saturday, as low level moisture increases along with atmospheric instability, we’ll see a few sprinkles developing as early as Friday night into the weekend.
The next cold front.. it this point, it appears weak.. will approach the area late Saturday night into Sunday with a little better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. The front will die out overhead and will keep us in a rather unsettled weather pattern with a continued rain chance into the new week.
Overall, over the next seven days, I expect a generally dry weather pattern with any rainfall to average 1/4 inch or less.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 31 January 2017
TODAY…. Sunshine and unseasonably warm. High 80. South southwesterly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear with some patchy fog and low clouds developing after midnight. Low 51. Light southerly wind.
WEDNESDAY…. Patchy morning low clouds and fog before 9am. Becoming mostly sunny by mid and late morning. Unseasonably warm. High 79. Southwesterly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with a mostly cloudy sky after midnight as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest and moves through the area by 5am. Patchy drizzle and fog after midnight. Low 53. Light southerly wind becoming more westerly by 5am.
THURSDAY…. Patchy morning low clouds and fog with a few periods of drizzle before 10am. Becoming mostly sunny by late morning. Not quite as warm. High 67. Northwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming east northeasterly by afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds and patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 52. Easterly winds 4 to 8 mph early with winds becoming south southeasterly by mid evening.
FRIDAY…. Patchy morning low clouds and fog.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. A 10% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 55. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Patchy morning low clouds and fog.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles mainly in the morning. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. High 73. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. mainly after midnight. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 57. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Patchy morning low clouds and fog.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a weak cold front moves southeastward across the area in the morning with a 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Becoming partly cloudy and less humid in the afternoon. High 69. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming northwesterly 5 to 12 mph as the cold front passes.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and a little cooler. Low 46. North northwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 67. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more northeasterly by afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 07 February 2017 through Monday / 13 February 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (31 Jan)……………………………………………. 7:22 am
Sunset this evening (31 Jan)……………………………………………… 6:07 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (01 Feb)………………………………………………… 7:21 am
Sunset tomorrow (01 Feb)…………………………………………………. 6:08 pm
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