Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1015am CT – Thursday /05 January 2017

.. Arctic Cold Front Moving Southward into the Area ..

At 1000am, the leading edge of a modified arctic air mass is moving southward from between
Waco and Killeen/Belton/Temple and Fort Hood. A prefrontal wind shift is noted in advance of
the system down into the Austin metro area.

Over the next few hours, the arctic cold front will move further southward into the Austin metro/
IH35 corridor area. As it does, northerly winds will increase and temperatures will begin to fall.

Satellite imagery shows clouds breaking over parts of Williamson and extreme northwestern
Travis county.. so it’s possible that we’ll see a little sunshine today as this colder air arrives.

By tonight into Friday, in response to an upper air disturbance moving southeastward out of the
Rockies, we’ll see a slight overrunning pattern develop with moisture from the south southeast
gliding back northwestward up and over the much colder air at the surface. While clouds will be
quite persistent, I just don’t think anything more than a few sprinkles occurring tomorrow (with
temperatures just above freezing) with precipitation probabilities at any location in the Austin
metro/IH35 corridor counties being 10% or less. The best rain chances will remain southeast
of the Austin area proper (closer to the frontal boundary and the moisture source) and areas to
our distant north (in association with the dynamics of the upper air disturbance).

By by dinner hour tomorrow night, the upper air disturbance will pass to our distant northeast and
clouds are expected to break. As that occurs and winds diminish, we can expect a hard freeze in most
areas of the Austin metro tomorrow night and again possible for Saturday night as well with lows,
away from downtown, reaching the 23 to 26 degree range. Outlying and low lying areas could see
temperatures closer to 20. As a result, please remember “pets.. pipes.. plants and people,” as you
prepare for this event.

All guidance indicates a return to a southerly wind by late Sunday into Monday as well as most of
next week with temperatures climbing back to above average for this time of year.

…. My confidence in this forecast scenario is very high ….


I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions, please let me know at


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