December 2017 – Page 7 – Troy Kimmel Weather

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 06 December 2017

… Clouds.. On and Off Rain and Much Colder Conditions …
… A Rain / Snow Mix Possible Over The Hill Country Tonight into Tomorrow …
… Sunshine Returns with Seasonal Temperatures Late Week into the Weekend …

On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a strong cold front is moving southeastward from southern Georgia into the northern and western parts of the Gulf of Mexico then into eastern Mexico well south of Brownsville. Surface high pressure, which has built into Texas in the wake of the front, extends from Texas northwestward into the intermountain west and southwestern Canada. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are northerly.

On the upper air map… a rather deep trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extends southward from Hudson Bay through the eastern two thirds of the country. Within this large counter clockwise flow, a lingering upper air low pressure disturbance is still located well to our west over southwestern Arizona. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are westerly 90 to 95 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

On this Wednesday morning, the upper air low pressure disturbance out west is continuing to produce an overrunning weather pattern resulting in chilly and wet conditions over the area with temperatures well below seasonal averages.

This rain will persist through tonight and tomorrow before the upper level low pressure disturbance moves east of the area and our skies clear late week through the weekend into early next week.

Tonight, rain may mix at times with some snow and sleet in hill country areas to our distant west through northwest. Due to the warmer ground, I do not anticipate any problems although I’ll continue to monitor. I’m revising my forecast slightly to lower the chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix as far southeast as the IH35 corridor metropolitan areas and keep it further northwest.

Rainfall over the next two days, according to National Weather Service guidance, will average in the range of 1/2 to 1 inch.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 06 December 2017

TODAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with occasional rain and rain showers. A near 100% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 42. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with occasional rain. Rain may become mixed with light sleet and/or snow west of our area over the Texas Hill Country. A 90% chance of precipitation; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. No snow accumulations expected. Low 35. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with occasional rain mixed with snow and/or sleet in Texas Hill Country areas before 8am. Scattered rain and rain showers after 8am. A 50% chance of precipitation; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. No snow accumulations expected. High 48. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. A few sprinkles early. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average trace amounts. Decreasing clouds by midnight becoming mostly clear and colder. A light freeze possible in outlying and low lying areas. Low 34. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. A few clouds early.. otherwise sunshine. High 59. West northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 36. Light northerly wind.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 65. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT …. Clear. Low 37. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 67. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly by afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 40. Light southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 45. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny in the wake of an early morning cold front. High 67. Southwesterly wind early becoming northerly 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 13 December 2017 through Tuesday / 19 December 2017…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (06 December)………………………………. 7:14 am
Sunset this evening (06 December)………………………………… 5:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (07 December)…………………………………… 7:15 am
Sunset tomorrow (07 December)……………………………………. 5:30 pm

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
900am CT – Wednesday / 06 December 2017

.. Rain/Sleet/Snow Mix Still Possible to Our Northwest Over Hill Country Areas Tonight into Thursday ..
.. No Accumulations Expected ..

On this Wednesday, a surface cold front continues to settle southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico
with much colder surface based air continuing to feed into the area. At the same time, a second upper air
low pressure disturbance is moving over the area with light rain continuing in the post frontal colder air.

Temperatures with cloud cover today will remain around 40 with occasional light rain continuing through
tonight and into Thursday. Overnight tonight, temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 30s.

After sunset tonight, the rain will become mixed with some snow flakes and sleet over the northern hill country.
This winter precipitation mix may slowly spread into the higher elevations of extreme western Williamson.. Travis
and Hays counties after midnight as temperatures fall into the mid to upper 30s. Based on the latest guidance,
I do not look for any of the wintry mix to make it as far southeast as the IH35 metropolitan areas.

After sunrise on Thursday, even though the clouds and rain chances will persist, I expect temperatures to
rise back into the 40s.

At this point, I expect surface air temperatures in the counties along the IH35 corridor to remain above the
freezing mark and this will combine with warm ground temperatures to keep us problem free. Some areas of
the Texas Hill Country to our distant west through northwest.. where temperatures get a little closer to freezing..
could see some isolated and localized problems on bridges and overpasses. At this point, due to the warmer
ground, I do not anticipate any snow/ice accumulations around the area.

Once this last upper air disturbance passes, I expect clearing skies Thursday night into Friday with abundant
sunshine and warmer temperatures Friday through the weekend and into early next week.

I’ll continue to monitor this weather situation closely..

Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984