Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 01 October 2014
…. Another Above Average Temperature Day ….
…. Cold Front Still on Tap for Late Thursday ….
On this Wednesday morning…. an old frontal boundary is stretched out from Florida west northwestward through the Gulf of Mexico to the southwest Louisiana coast. Low pressure and a fairly weak cold front extends southwestward from central Kansas into western Oklahoma and west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a minor trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is over the northeastern USA with another stronger and deepening trough of low pressure moving easterly over the western two thirds of the USA. Upper level high pressure.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. is located over central and northern Mexico eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are westerly less than 20 mph.
A stable summer like weather pattern continues across the area with a south southeasterly surface wind flow across the area.
By late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as the upper level trough over the western part of the USA moves eastward, a cold front will sweep east southeastward through Texas and the local area with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms expected just ahead of and along the advancing cold front for the 3pm to 10pm time frame Thursday. The atmosphere will not be highly unstable, so rain chances will not be as high as they could be. The latest guidance suggests that we could see one quarter to one half inch of rain as the front passes.
Cooler and drier air along with abundant sunshine will prevail in the wake of the front late Thursday night and Friday into the weekend.
As the surface high pressure area.. behind the front.. moves into the southern Mississippi Valley by late Saturday night into Sunday with a southerly wind and a return to low level moisture by Sunday into Sunday night and into early and the middle part of next week.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence through the next seven days is very high.
Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel