Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 24 September 2014

…. A Dry Early Fall Weather Pattern Continues ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a surface high pressure area extends southwestward from the northeastern USA into the Ohio Valley region then southwestward into Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are easterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is over the eastern coast of the USA with another trough of low pressure just offshore of the west coast. There is another weak upper level low over northwest Texas. Upper level high pressure.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. has become reestablished from northern Mexico into the southwestern USA. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are variable less than 20 mph.

Even though we’ve seen more mid and upper level clouds since yesterday, a dry and stable late summer/early fall weather pattern continues to prevail and is expected to continue through the next seven day forecast period with no mention of precipitation over the period.

Temperatures will be around or perhaps just above seasonal averages over the next seven days with abundant sunshine expected.

The latest long range computer guidance shows that an upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure will move eastward through the western USA and into the plains by the latter part of next week with a fairly strong associated cold front due locally late next Thursday into early Friday. Guidance suggest the possibility of rain and thunderstorms with this weather system and cooler temperatures for next weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence over the next six days is very high with my confidence falling back to medium for the latter part of next week regarding cloudiness/precipitation coverage and the timing of the next cold front.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel