Updated 845am CDT Monday / 9 September 2013

…. Thunderstorm Chances Linger for Afternoon into Evening Hours ….
…. An Otherwise Typical Late Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….

On this Monday morning…. surface high pressure continues over the southeastern USA with another high pressure area is to our distant west northwest over the Great Salt Lake basin. A trough.. or line.. low pressure area extends from south southeastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level high pressure area has settled eastward a bit into Kentucky. Being on the south southwest side of the upper air high, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southeasterly 15 to 25 mph.

Another slug of moisture has moved northward through south central Texas. That atmospheric moisture will combine with daytime heating and atmospheric instability today into tonight for a slightly increased rain shower and thunderstorm chance. These rain chances will linger for the afternoon and evening hours over the next few days.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds may accompany the thunderstorms.
By the end of the week into next weekend, I expect that the upper level high pressure area will build back into our area with increased sunshine and rain chances dropping from the forecast. Temperatures will continue to be at or above average.

According to meteorologists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center, there are a few systems over the Atlantic Ocean basin.. including a tropical cyclone Humberto over the far eastern Atlantic basin. In addition, over the next five days, computer guidance suggests that low pressure may develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche. I’ll continue to monitor for this possibility.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through Thursday.. then a high confidence Friday through early next week with the possibility of low pressure development in the Gulf adding some uncertainty.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel