Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 7 August 2013

…. Little Change in our Weather Pattern with Summer Heat Continuing ….
…. A Few More Clouds by the Weekend ….

On this Wednesday morning…. an area of surface high pressure continues over the western and central Gulf of Mexico. A weakening stationary front is located from northwest Mississippi through Arkansas and Oklahoma into northwest Texas. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward from a low over western Oklahoma into southeastern New Mexico and far southwest Texas. As a result, surface winds are southerly across our local area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level high pressure area.. acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere.. is located over the state of Texas. As a result of this upper air pattern, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are fairly light and variable.

The summer weather pattern continues across Texas with little change expected over the remainder of the week. As the “lid” holds on the atmosphere, clouds will at a premium with afternoon high temperatures well above seasonal averages.

The NWS/Austin-San Antonio continues their Heat Advisory for most our local area through 7pm tomorrow with afternoon highs in the 100F to 105F degree range and heat indices reaching the critical 105F to 110F in some areas. Persons planning outdoor activities should avoid the warmest afternoon hours and, at all times, remain hydrated and try not to overdo it.

As mentioned yesterday, once we get into the weekend into next week, an upper level low pressure area (we call it a “tutt” low.. look that one up!!) is forecast to drift westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico and then begin to interact with the upper level high.. or the “lid” on the atmosphere.. over our area. I still believe that the high will “win” out with the low being diverted more southward with little effect locally and rain chances remaining well south, southeast and east of our local area.

Based on the latest information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center, the tropical Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, remain quiet with no prospect for development in the next five days.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence into Saturday.. falling to moderate to high for Saturday night into Sunday as well as Monday and Tuesday as I continue to monitor for a very slim possibility of precipitation as the upper level low moves westward from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into far south Texas.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel