As the upper level low pressure system moves overhead and an associated cold front/dry line moves southeastward across the area by later this afternoon into tonight, we’ll see dynamic atmospheric lift combine with a very unstable air mass to produce strong to severe thunderstorms over the area. All severe weather hazards… hail.. damaging straight line thunderstorm winds.. and tornadoes.. are possible.

The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has increased the risk of severe thunderstorms to “enhanced” for the local area over the next 12 hours (see outlook graphic below). The risks are about the same as yesterday although the damaging straight line thunderstorm wind risk may have increased a bit based on the latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center outlook.

As mentioned previously, beginning now and continuing over about the next 12 hour period, thunderstorms will need to be watched for a tornado risk in thunderstorms that show signs of rotation. This rotation can be found in thunderstorms that develop ahead of the squall line that is likely to develop along the cold front/dry line to the west of the IH35 corridor but can also be found in individual thunderstorms within the north-to-south oriented squall line that moves eastward over the area tonight. In addition, there is an increased risk that any thunderstorm in the developing squall line that exhibits a “bowing out” structure will have an associated damaging straight line thunderstorm wind threat.

The greatest risk for these stronger thunderstorms in the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor will be in the 5pm to 11pm time frame today into tonight.