Updated 130pm CDT Friday / 11 May 2012
…. Strong Upper Level Low Pressure Disturbance Moving East Northeastward ….
…. A Drier and More Stable Weather Pattern for the Weekend ….
…. Another Passing Disturbance with Relatively Slim Rain Chances Next Week ….
On this Friday… surface high pressure is situated to our northeast over the Ohio Valley region. A cold front extends southwestward from western Iowa into southern Colorado and southern Utah. As a result, a variable surface wind is blowing across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a dynamic upper level low pressure area is located over west Texas. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are moderate southwesterly over our area.
The strong upper air low pressure disturbance over west Texas will move slowly east northeastward over the next two days as it slowly weakens.
A final round of rain showers and thunderstorms.. as part of the counterclockwise flow around the upper level low northwest of us.. will decrease tonight.
After this upper air system weakens and departs to the north of the area.. upper level winds are forecast to shift more northwesterly which will support a cold front passing southeastward through the area by late tomorrow night into the predawn hours Sunday. The front will really only act to reinforce the air mass in place with a dry and more stable weather pattern building into the area for the weekend. As a result of decreased clouds and a little more sunshine, afternoon high temperatures will warm.
Another upper level low pressure disturbance will move across the area from the west late Monday through Tuesday. Moisture will increase across the area as the disturbance approaches, but I am still keeping rain chances on the slim side as the system passes overhead.
My forecast confidence continues high to very high through the weekend with my forecast confidence falling to medium for Tuesday and Wednesday next week with the passage of the next upper air disturbance and associated rain chances.
For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be variably cloudy with a few rain showers. Lows in the 60s. Northerly wind. For tomorrow, partly to mostly cloudy. Highs in the 70s with an easterly wind.
Have a good Friday night and Saturday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel