Updated 800am CT – Friday / 12 December 2014
…. Clouds Break A Little Going into the Weekend ….
…. Rain Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Again Sunday and Sunday Night ….
…. Cooler and Drier Weather for Early Next Week ….
On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over western Tennessee and Kentucky. Another surface high pressure area is centered over the four corners region. The two high pressure areas are separated by a stationary front extending northwestward from north Texas to the Colorado and Kansas border. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light southeastward.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong upper level low pressure area is located over Maine. The strong/dynamic upper level low pressure storm system is moving northeastward through British Columbia with a broad trough extending southward to along the California coast. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are northwesterly 10 to 20 mph.
The weakening upper air disturbance, that has been affecting Texas over the last 24 hours, is continuing to move east northeastward with clouds lingering across the area.
We’ll see clouds break with some sunshine expected during the day today into tomorrow before another stronger upper air disturbance and surface cold front moves into the area by Sunday into Sunday night. This second weather system appears to be a little more dynamic with increased clouds and rain shower and thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast for as early as Saturday night and then peaking Sunday and Sunday night. I expected, based on the current guidance, that the cold front will pass through our local area around midnight Sunday night. Isolated heavier thunderstorms may accompany this system with rainfall guidance suggesting upwards of 1/2 inch with the system.
It appears that a drier and cooler weather pattern will develop in the wake of the Sunday night/Monday morning upper air low pressure storm system and cold front.
Another low pressure storm system approaches and moves into Texas by the end of next week with increased clouds and the return to rain and maybe even thunderstorm chances.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high Saturday night through Sunday and Sunday night with precipitation chances and timing being the uncertainties. Otherwise.. I have high to very high forecast confidence through most of the upcoming seven day forecast. My confidence does fall beginning next Wednesday night into Thursday as the next weather system approaches.
Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel