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by troyk | on May 17, 2018 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 17 May 2018

… A Stable Summer Like Weather Pattern Prevails …
… No Cold Frontal Passages Expected Over the Next Seven Days …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… high pressure is centered to our southeast over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A weakening cold front extends south southwestward from a surface low over extreme western Tennessee into northern Louisiana where it becomes stationary and extends westward across central Texas the into far western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are light and variable.

On the upper air map… an upper level low is east of Hudson Bay with another disturbance over the southeastern USA. Another upper level low extends south southwestward from Montana into Nevada and eastern California. Between the two troughs, a ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends from northern Mexico and west Texas northward into the western plains states. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northwesterly at 55 to 60 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Things are looking quiet as the area of upper level high pressure, just to our west, dominates with sinking motion in the atmosphere. Yesterday’s well above average high temperatures are evidence of this increased atmospheric stability.

I don’t see much of a chance of rain over the next two or three days, or pretty much through our upcoming weekend, as the result of this more stable summer like weather pattern. Afternoon high temperatures into the weekend will continue to be much warmer than usual with high temperatures falling back a few degrees late in the weekend into next week although, overall, the afternoon high temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.

There are some indications that our atmosphere may destabilize enough for isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms by Sunday into Monday as a weakening cold front moves into north central and western Texas as it becomes stationary. My impression is that this front should pull up stationary well north through west of our area so it should not be much of a trigger for precipitation. We may see a few sprinkles during the early morning hours, especially along the IH35 corridor, Monday and Tuesday mornings. Rainfall, where it occurs given the very low rainfall probabilities, will average, at most, several hundredths of an inch with most areas receiving trace amounts or no rainfall at all.

Have a good Wednesday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 17 May 2018

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with a few low clouds late. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. A few morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 96. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with a few low clouds late. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. A few morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 94. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 92. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds and a sprinkle or two, otherwise partly cloudy. High 91. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds and a sprinkle or two, otherwise partly cloudy. High 91. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 92. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 24 May 2018 through Wednesday / 30 May 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 May)………………………………………… 6:36 am
Sunset this evening (17 May)………………………………………….. 8:19 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 May)…………………………………………….. 6:35 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 May)……………………………………………… 8:20 pm

Categories: Austin Area Forecast, Weather Discussion

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