Updated 915am CT – Monday / 20 March 2017
.. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern Through Mid into Late Week …
.. Our Next Cold Front Arrives Friday into Friday with Chance of Thunderstorms ..
.. Slightly Cooler and Less Humid Weekend Coming Up ..
On this Monday… surface high pressure is east of the area centered over the Appalachians. Low pressure is located from southern Iowa southwestward into central Kansas. A dry line.. separating dry air to the west from more moist humid air to the east.. extends from the low pressure area southwestward into south central Kansas into northwest Oklahoma through the Texas panhandle and into southeast New Mexico and west Texas east of El Paso. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are south southwesterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a broad stable ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from Texas and northeastern Mexico through the plains states. A trough, or line, of low pressure extends southward in the western Atlantic basin off the east coast of the USA with another one off the west coast of the USA. As a result, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are relatively light northwesterly at 15 to 25 mph.
With the upper level high pressure area overhead, a stable dry weather pattern continues across the area. With the high pressure area aloft, acting like an atmospheric “lid,” afternoon high temperatures will continue to be about 10 degrees above seasonal averages. Little change in this weather pattern is expected through Thursday.
By Thursday into Thursday night, a strong upper air low pressure disturbance will come ashore into the southwestern USA and will travel eastward through the southwestern states. As this occurs, a strong, dynamic surface low pressure area will develop over southern Colorado and then will push eastward, with an attendant surface cold front, Friday through Friday night. In advance of this system, low level moisture and instability will have had the opportunity to increase. As the atmospheric lift and instability progresses eastward across our area, rain shower and thunderstorm activity.. with some strong thunderstorms.. by daybreak Friday morning and picking up in coverage Friday into Friday night as the cold front sweeps eastward across our area. We’ll need to monitor for the possibility of severe thunderstorms with a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat.. especially to the northeast of our local area.
Precipitation will taper off quickly and skies will clear in the wake of the cold front Friday night as slightly cooler and drier air moves into the area from the northwest. Saturday looks like a great day with abundant sunshine and temperatures only slightly above seasonal averages.
Another low pressure area will develop quickly to our distant northwest by Saturday night into Sunday with a southerly low level wind returning with an increase in clouds by Sunday.
Our next low pressure storm system appears by the early to middle part of next week with thunderstorm chances returning.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 13 March 2017
TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 85. Southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 62. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 62. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 86. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early.. some low clouds after midnight. Low 64. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. some low clouds after midnight. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southerly winds 8 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, in the morning with rain chances increasing to likely by afternoon. Some stronger thunderstorms possible with a hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind threat. A 40% chance of rain through 12 noon then increasing to 70% by afternoon; rainfall with average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High around 80. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming westerly then northwesterly by late in the afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered evening thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 8pm. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average an additional 1/4 inch. Clearing and turning a little cooler by mid and late evening. Low 55. Northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 80. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming light east northeasterly by late afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear through midnight with a few low clouds developing after midnight. Low 56. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly after midnight.
SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. A bit warmer and more humid. High 83. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 27 March 2017 through Sunday / 03 April 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 Mar)……………………………………………. 7:34 am
Sunset this evening (20 Mar)……………………………………………… 7:43 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (21 Mar)………………………………………………… 7:33 am
Sunset tomorrow (21 Mar)…………………………………………………. 7:43 pm