Daily Archives
April 23, 2015

TK’s Special Briefing…. (520pm CT-Thu/23Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 23, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #5
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
520pm CT – Thursday / 23 April 2015

…. Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued for Williamson County until 9pm ….
It does not include the Austin metro area at this time…

A dissipating thunderstorm is located west of Belton…
A developing thunderstorm is just north of Burnet…

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0097_radar_big.gif

Link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0097.html

I’m continuing to monitor.. tk

TK’s Special Briefing…. (350pm CT-Thu/23Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 23, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #4
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
350pm CT – Thursday / 23 April 2015

“Slight” Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Continues Today For Parts of our Area …
A Continued “Slight” of Severe Thunderstorms Risk for Tomorrow ….


NWS/Storm Prediction Center has issued a MESOSCALE DISCUSSION for
areas Austin northward.. watch possible in next couple of hours…
MD 428 graphic

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/md0428.html

I’m continuing to monitor.. tk

--

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (945am CT-Thu/23Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 23, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Apr 23, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 23 April 2015

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms possibly severe with hail 1″ in diameter or larger along with thunderstorm winds 58 mph or higher. Frequent dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms. A 40% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 85. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Frequent dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms possibly severe with hail 1″ in diameter or larger along with thunderstorm winds 58 mph or higher. Frequent dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms. A 50% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 83. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before midnight. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before 10am. A 20% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. . High 87. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 88. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 64. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northerly 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy and not quite as warm with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 9am. A 20% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. High 80. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and cooler. Low 58. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 79. Light northeasterly wind becoming more east southeasterly in the afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 30 April 2015 through Wednesday/ 06 May 2015…
Temperature… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23 April)…………………………………………. 6:56 am
Sunset this evening (23 April)…………………………………………… 8:04pm
Sunrise Friday (24 April)………………………………………………….. 6:54 am
Sunset Friday (24 April)…………………………………………………… 8:04 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Apr 23, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 23 April 2015

.. A More Unstable Air Mass ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Continue Through Early Saturday ..
.. A Little More Sunshine for the Weekend ..

On this Thursday…. a southward moving.. but weakening.. cold front extends westward from central Alabama.. Mississippi and northern Louisiana into north Texas then northwestward through west Texas and northeastern New Mexico and northward into Colorado. A weak low pressure are is over west and southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a counterclockwise rotating upper air low pressure area is located north of the St. Lawrence River and extends over the northeastern USA and southeastern Canada. Another upper level low pressure disturbance is over southern California.. western Arizona and southern Nevada. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 60 to 70 mph.

With our return south southeasterly surface wind, we’ve seen low level moisture pick up quickly which is evidenced by the presence of fog this morning. We’re also seeing a moderate westerly upper level winds are bringing mid and high level Pacific moisture.. in the form of mid and high clouds.. to our local area.

A series of weak cold fronts.. including the one over north Texas this morning.. will approach the area from the north through the latter part of the week. Even though I don’t see the fronts making their way this far south through the end of the week, beginning today, we’ll be seeing the influence of passing upper air disturbances from the counter clockwise rotating system over the southwestern USA. This resultant increased upward motion in the atmosphere along with a more moist and unstable air mass will bring us increased clouds as well as rain and thunderstorms chances continuing through the remainder of the week and perhaps into early Saturday.

The latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance suggests the possibility of stronger.. potentially severe.. thunderstorms for parts of Texas (including parts of our local area) for today through Friday. In addition, the latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance now shows the potential of 3/4 to 1 1/2 inch of rain between now and Saturday.

A drier and more stable air mass return Saturday into Sunday with more sunshine expected.

Another approaching front along with a passing upper air low pressure disturbance will result in the return of rain and thunderstorm chances to the forecast by Sunday night into Monday. Early indications suggest the possibility of severe thunderstorms again.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel