Daily Archives
April 22, 2015

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (935am CT-Wed/22Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 22, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Special Briefing…. (915am CT – Wed/22Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 22, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
910am CT – Wednesday / 22 April 2015

….”Slight” Risk of Severe Thunderstorms For Our Local Area Today..
Continued Threat Thursday and Friday ….

With our return south southeasterly surface wind, we’re seeing low level moisture
continuing to increase across the area. We’re also seeing a moderate westerly
upper level winds are bringing some mid and high level Pacific moisture.. in the
form of mid and high clouds.. to our local area.

A series of weak cold fronts will approach the area from the north by tomorrow
through the latter part of the week. Even though I don’t see the fronts making
their way this far south through the end of the week, beginning today, we’ll be
seeing the influence of passing upper air disturbances from the counter
clockwise rotating system over southern California. This resultant increased
upward motion in the atmosphere along with a more moist and unstable air
mass will bring us increased clouds as well as rain and thunderstorms chances
beginning today and continuing through the remainder of the week.

The latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance suggests the possibility of
stronger.. potentially severe.. thunderstorms for parts of Texas (including parts
of our local area) for today through Thursday and Friday.

In addition, the latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance now shows the potential
of 3/4 to 1 1/2 inch of rain between now and Saturday.

I’m continuing to monitor.. tk

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Apr 22, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 22 April 2015

TODAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms possibly severe with hail 1″ in diameter or larger along with thunderstorm winds 58 mph or higher. Frequent dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms. A 40% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 82. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Frequent dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms possibly severe with hail 1″ in diameter or larger along with thunderstorm winds 58 mph or higher. Frequent dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms. A 40% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 84. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Frequent dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms possibly severe with hail 1″ in diameter or larger along with thunderstorm winds 58 mph or higher. Frequent dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms. A 50% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 84. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before midnight. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 87. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 88. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. A 10% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. A 10% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 29 April 2015 through Tuesday / 05 May 2015…
Temperature… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (22 April)…………………………………………. 6:56 am
Sunset this evening (22 April)…………………………………………… 8:03 pm
Sunrise Thursday (23 April)……………………………………………… 6:56 am
Sunset Thursday (23 April)………………………………………………. 8:04 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Apr 22, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 22 April 2015

.. A More Unstable Air Mass ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Through Late Week ..

On this Wednesday…. a southward moving cold front extends from the Missouri bootheel into northern Arkansas and Oklahoma and northwestward into Colorado. A weak low pressure are is over west Texas and eastern New Mexico west southwest of Amarillo with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure from the low southward into far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an strong counterclockwise rotating upper air low pressure area is located just northeast of Lake Superior. Another strong upper level low pressure disturbance is over southern California. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 50 to 60 mph.

With our return south southeasterly surface wind, we’re seeing low level moisture continuing to increase across the area. We’re also seeing a moderate westerly upper level winds are bringing some mid and high level Pacific moisture.. in the form of mid and high clouds.. to our local area.

A series of weak cold fronts will approach the area from the north by tomorrow through the latter part of the week. Even though I don’t see the fronts making their way this far south through the end of the week, beginning today, we’ll be seeing the influence of passing upper air disturbances from the counter clockwise rotating system over southern California. This resultant increased upward motion in the atmosphere along with a more moist and unstable air mass will bring us increased clouds as well as rain and thunderstorms chances beginning today and continuing through the remainder of the week.

The latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance suggests the possibility of stronger.. potentially severe.. thunderstorms for parts of Texas (including parts of our local area) for today through Thursday and Friday. In addition, the latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance now shows the potential of 3/4 to 1 1/2 inch of rain between now and Saturday.

A drier and more stable air mass return Saturday into Sunday with more sunshine expected. Another approaching front along with a passing upper air low pressure disturbance will result in the return of rain and thunderstorm chances to the forecast by Sunday night into Monday.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel