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March 17, 2015

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (1015am CT-Tues/17Mar2015)

by troyk | on Mar 17, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Mar 17, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 17 March 2015

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered morning rain showers.. then scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely. Periods of heavier rain possible. Rainfall, given an 80% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. Low 61. Southerly wind 3 to 6 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 72. Southerly wind 3 to 6 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 59. Southerly wind 3 to 6 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 75. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 62. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy and turning a little cooler as a cold front passes. Rain showers and thunderstorms likely. Periods of heavier rain possible. Rainfall, given an 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 68. Southerly wind shifting north northwesterly 5 to 12 mph in the midday hours.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, given an 80% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. Low 52. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous patches of rain. Isolated thunderstorms. Rain chances decreasing in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 67. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Decreasing clouds becoming partly cloudy. Low 49. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 68. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 51. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 69. Light south southeasterly wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 24 March 2015 through Monday / 30 March 2015…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 March)…………………………………………. 7:38 am
Sunset this evening (17 March)…………………………………………… 7:41 pm
Sunrise Wednesday (18 March)………………………………………….. 7:37 am
Sunset Wednesday (18 March)…………………………………………… 7:41 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Mar 17, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 17 March 2015

.. First of Two Upper Air Low Pressure Storm Systems Crosses Tonight ..
.. Second Weather System Passes Late Thursday into Saturday ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances on the Increase ..
.. Two or More Inches of Rainfall Possible ..

On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure is located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and south Texas. A southeastward moving cold front extends from eastern Missouri into northwestern Oklahoma and northern Texas panhandle then northwestward into northeastern New Mexico and central Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a ridge.. or line.. of upper air high pressure extends north northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico northward into western Louisiana. A strong upper level low pressure disturbance is over western Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are south southwesterly at 15 to 25 mph.

The upper level low pressure area.. over western Mexico.. is already creating a more moist and slightly more unstable air mass with precipitation spreading northeastward across the Rio Grande River at mid morning.

The upper air disturbance will move across the area by tonight into tomorrow producing dynamic atmospheric lift and will result in excellent chances of rain and thunderstorms later today into tonight and tomorrow. The latest manual and computer guidance continues the high rain chances with the latest NWS forecast rainfall amounts locally are showing around 1 1/2 inches, I would not be surprised with isolated heavier amounts.

Another strong upper level disturbance combined with a southeastward moving weak cold front will result in renewed rain and thunderstorm chances by late Thursday into Friday through Saturday with the clouds and rain chances extending into the weekend. Another inch or two of rain is possible with this weather system as it passes overhead.

Temperatures will be at or slightly above average over the next few days with temperatures cooling a bit to below average by late Thursday through Friday before returning to near average by next weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through the week and into the weekend. The main questions will be the exact probability for rain as well as precipitation timing and amounts.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel