Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Day: January 5, 2015

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 05 January 2015

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 48. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming southeasterly by late afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 31. Light southerly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny and warmer. High 59. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear with a cold front passing after midnight. Low 36. South southwesterly wind shifting northerly 10 to 20 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy.. windy and much colder. High 41. Northerly winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts to above 30 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a hard freeze. Low 22. North northeasterly wind decreasing to 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 40. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Thickening clouds becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Low 30. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles in the midday and afternoon hours. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 43. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 35. Light easterly wind.

SATURDAY…. A cloudy sky with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch. High 45. Light easterly wind.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch. Low 39. Light east southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few rain showers in the morning as a cold front passes. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Partial clearing in the afternoon. High 49. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 12 January 2015 through Sunday / 18 January 2015…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (05 January)…………………………………………… 7:28 am
Sunset this evening (05 January)……………………………………………. 5:45 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (06 January)……………………………………………….. 7:28 am
Sunset Tuesday (06 January)………………………………………………… 5:46 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 800am CT – Monday / 05 January 2015

…. Colder Arctic Air In Place Over Texas As We Start the Week ….
…. More Arctic Air into Texas Early Wednesday and Again over the Weekend ….
…. Clouds and Rain Chances with a Warm Up Late Week into the Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. high pressure is building into Texas from the north… it is centered over eastern Kansas and western Missouri. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure is centered from Hudson Bay southward over the eastern half of the USA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly at 10 to 20 mph.

The surface high pressure area, to our north, will move eastward pretty quickly today into tonight with winds becoming more southeasterly locally by later this afternoon. Overall, a dry and stable winter weather pattern continues. With the increased south southeasterly wind flow, we’ll see a warm up tonight into tomorrow.

Another strong arctic cold front will move through the area by early Wednesday morning with high pressure settling into the area.. with much colder temperatures.. for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be much below average Wednesday into the latter part of the week into the weekend with a hard freeze (think: pets, pipes and plants!!) likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

An approaching upper level low pressure disturbance.. from the west.. will approach the area by Thursday into Friday and into the weekend with an overrunning cloud and rain pattern setting up across the area.

In the wake of the upper air disturbance, another reinforcement of modified arctic air.. not quite as cold.. is due by early Sunday with sunshine returning to the area for Sunday into the early part of next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through Wednesday and Wednesday night with my confidence falling back to medium for Thursday through the weekend with rain chances, timing and amounts being the issues.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel