Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Day: December 12, 2014

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 12 December 2014

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy for the midday and afternoon hours. High 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 54. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few patches of rain developing after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 57. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 70. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the area after midnight. Turning breezy and cooler. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average an additional 1/4 inch. Low 49. Southwesterly wind shifting north northwesterly 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY…. A few clouds in the morning otherwise mostly sunny.. breezy and cooler. High 63. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s in outlying and low lying areas to near 41 in the city. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 58. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s in outlying and low lying areas to near 40 in the city. Light northeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy in the morning then mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a few sprinkles developing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 59. Light east northeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average an additional 1/10 inch or less. Low 46. Light easterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average an additional 1/4 inch. High 61. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 19 December 2014 through Thursday / 25 December 2014…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (12 December)…………………………………………… 7:18 am
Sunset this evening (12 December)……………………………………………. 5:31 pm
Sunrise Saturday (13 December)……………………………………………….. 7:19 am
Sunset Saturday (13 December)………………………………………………… 5:32 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 800am CT – Friday / 12 December 2014

…. Clouds Break A Little Going into the Weekend ….
…. Rain Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Again Sunday and Sunday Night ….
…. Cooler and Drier Weather for Early Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over western Tennessee and Kentucky. Another surface high pressure area is centered over the four corners region. The two high pressure areas are separated by a stationary front extending northwestward from north Texas to the Colorado and Kansas border. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light southeastward.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong upper level low pressure area is located over Maine. The strong/dynamic upper level low pressure storm system is moving northeastward through British Columbia with a broad trough extending southward to along the California coast. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are northwesterly 10 to 20 mph.

The weakening upper air disturbance, that has been affecting Texas over the last 24 hours, is continuing to move east northeastward with clouds lingering across the area.

We’ll see clouds break with some sunshine expected during the day today into tomorrow before another stronger upper air disturbance and surface cold front moves into the area by Sunday into Sunday night. This second weather system appears to be a little more dynamic with increased clouds and rain shower and thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast for as early as Saturday night and then peaking Sunday and Sunday night. I expected, based on the current guidance, that the cold front will pass through our local area around midnight Sunday night. Isolated heavier thunderstorms may accompany this system with rainfall guidance suggesting upwards of 1/2 inch with the system.

It appears that a drier and cooler weather pattern will develop in the wake of the Sunday night/Monday morning upper air low pressure storm system and cold front.

Another low pressure storm system approaches and moves into Texas by the end of next week with increased clouds and the return to rain and maybe even thunderstorm chances.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high Saturday night through Sunday and Sunday night with precipitation chances and timing being the uncertainties. Otherwise.. I have high to very high forecast confidence through most of the upcoming seven day forecast. My confidence does fall beginning next Wednesday night into Thursday as the next weather system approaches.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel