Daily Archives
September 20, 2013

TK’s Special Briefing….

by troyk | on Sep 20, 2013 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Brief
Prepared by Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
1040am CDT – Friday / 20 September 2013

.. Beneficial Rainfall Event Underway Across South Central Texas …

Stay updated by monitoring the City of Austin low water/flooding website… http://www.atxfloods.com/index.html

At late morning on this Friday.. a southeastward moving cold front combining with an
upper air disturbance.. an increasingly unstable and moist air mass is resulting scattered
to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms. The precipitation is very tropical with
heavy rainfall amounts occurring in relatively short periods of time.

By the time that the precipitation ends tomorrow afternoon, most areas will have
received from 1 to 3 inches of rain with some isolated totals  to near 5 inches.
While the NWS/Austin-San Antonio has issued a flash flood watch for our area,
it’s my thinking that, given the on going severe drought conditions, that the ground
should be able to handle the rainfall.

Current flash flood guidance suggests that.. as a broad guideline.. that it would take
2.6 inches of rain in a one hour period, 3.4 inches in a three hour period and/or 4.4 inches
in a six hour period over Travis County to initiate more widespread flooding
problems. In the Austin metro area, the numbers would, of course,  be a bit lower
due to impervious ground cover. In any case, it should be noted that it is very likely
that some low water crossings are likely to see high water through the rest of the through
tonight and into early Saturday. All flash flood deaths are preventable as long as we use
common sense and remember the NWS slogan.. “turn around, don’t drown.”

I’ll continue to update you on this weather event.

tk

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast….

by troyk | on Sep 20, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 945am CT – Friday / 20 September 2013

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

by troyk | on Sep 20, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CDT.. Friday / 20 September 2013

TODAY…. A cloudy sky with an 80% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1 to 2 inches.  High 82 to 86. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more east northeasterly in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. A cloudy sky with a 80% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1 to 2 inches. Low 69 to 73. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. A cloudy sky with a 50% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms before 3 pm as a weak cold front passes southeastward through the area.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average an additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Decreasing clouds becoming partly cloudy after mid afternoon and into late afternoon. High 81 to 85. North northeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph in the wake of the morning cold front.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 65 to 69. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 87 to 91. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 64 to 68. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 87 to 91. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 65 to 69. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 88 to 92. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 66 to 70. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 89 to 93. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 67 to 71. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 89 to 93. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 27 September 2013  through Thursday / 03 October 2013…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (20 September)………………………….. 7:18 am
Sunset this evening (20 September)……………………………. 7:30 pm
Sunrise Saturday (21 September)……………………………….. 7:19 am
Sunset Saturday (21 September)………………………………… 7:28 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Sep 20, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CDT Friday / 20 September 2013

…. High Rain Chances As a Cold Front Moves Into Texas ….
…. Still Watching the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Development ….

On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure is over the eastern USA. A southeastward moving cold front extends southwestward from Minnesota through Nebraska into Colorado and westward into Utah. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends southward from a surface low over eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico.  As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are east southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level high pressure area is over southern Louisiana and the north central Gulf of Mexico. A eastward moving trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extends south southeastward from the eastern part of Montana and the western Dakotas into the Rockies. As a result, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southerly 10 to 20 mph.

Abundant atmospheric moisture continues over the area and will combine with daytime heating and atmospheric instability and the approach of the cold front and the upper air trough to produce scattered rain shower and thunderstorm development over the next 24 to 30 hours. The latest guidance suggests upward of 2 to 4 inches of rain.. with isolated higher rainfall totals.. may fall over our area with this storm system and cold front.

By early tomorrow morning into midday, as the weather systems to our west move more overhead and to the east, rain chances and clouds will begin to break. A more stable weather pattern will develop by late Saturday with partial clearing, slightly cooler and a bit drier air moving into the area Saturday night and Sunday.

I continue to watch the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for likely tropical cyclone development over the next few days. There’s much uncertainty regarding the future movement of the system.. particularly considering the advancing cold front due across Texas Friday into Saturday. The latest guidance suggests that the developing system will not have much effect on our local weather.. however, I will continue to closely monitor this system.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel