Daily Archives
September 12, 2013

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast….

by troyk | on Sep 12, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 945am CT – Thursday / 12 September 2013

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

by troyk | on Sep 12, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CDT.. Thursday / 12 September 2013

TODAY…. Partly cloudy with a less than 20% chance of afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. High 93 to 97. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch or less.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. mostly clear late. Low 70 to 74. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 94 to 98. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. mostly clear late. Low 70 to 74. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY….  Mostly sunny. High 94 to 98. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. mostly clear late. Low 70 to 74. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a less than 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 93 to 97. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch or less.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. mostly clear late. Low 70 to 74. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 93 to 97. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch or less.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of mainly evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Low 70 to 74. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch or less.

TUESDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 92 to 96. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch or less.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a less than 20% chance of mainly evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Low 70 to 74. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch or less.

WEDNESDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a less than 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 91 to 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch or less.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 19 September 2013  through Wednesday / 25 September 2013…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (12 September)………………………….. 7:14 am
Sunset this evening (12 September)……………………………. 7:40 pm
Sunrise Friday (13 September)………………………………….. 7:14 am
Sunset Friday (13 September)…………………………………… 7:38 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Sep 12, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CDT Thursday / 12 September 2013

…. Very Slim Thunderstorm Chances Linger Through This Afternoon and Evening ….
…. An Otherwise Typical Late Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Continuing to Watch Disturbed Tropical Weather over the Yucatan Peninsula ….

On this Thursday morning…. surface high pressure continues over the southeastern USA with another high pressure area is to our distant west northwest over the Great Salt Lake basin. A trough.. or line.. low pressure area extends southwestward from western Oklahoma into far west Texas. A southward moving cold front extends west southwestward from southern Missouri into northwest Oklahoma and the northern Texas panhandle. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are  southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level high pressure area has continued to settle southwestward into the southern plains states. However, an upper level low pressure area is moving southward along the Texas coast. Being on the south side of the upper air high and with the upper level low to our southwest, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northeasterly 10 to 20 mph.

Atmospheric moisture will continue today to combine with daytime heating and atmospheric instability as well as the upper level low to our southeast to produce isolated rain shower and thunderstorm development. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds may accompany the thunderstorms that do develop.

By tomorrow into the weekend, I expect that the upper level high pressure area will build back into our area with increased sunshine and rain chances dropping from the forecast. Temperatures will continue to be at or above average.

By Sunday into next week, a slightly more unstable air mass will move northwestward into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico and I will introduce a very slim rain chance beginning Sunday. These local rain chances will be tied to the development and future movement of the developing tropical system over the Yucatan Peninsula. According to meteorologists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center, there is a fairly high chance that a tropical cyclone (the next name on the list.. Ingrid) will develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by later today and Friday and into the weekend. It continues to be strongly felt that the system will be steered more westward toward Mexico than northwestward toward Texas and, as a result, I am going to keep rain chances very slim for Sunday into early next week. If the current trend continues, I may ultimately drop rain chances all together for the time period.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through Saturday.. then a medium confidence Sunday into next week with the developing tropical cyclone – its future movement and intensity – over the Gulf still throwing some uncertainty into my forecast (although not as much uncertainty as yesterday, though).

Have a good Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel