TK’s Austin/South Central Texas Forecast (Thu/2Feb2012)

1:30pm CST.. Thursday / 2 February 2012

TODAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog and drizzle.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 73 to 77. Variable wind becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Low 61 to 65. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms in the morning then increasing to 50% in the afternoon. High 72 to 76. Southerly wind 10 to 15 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Turning breezy and cooler with a 70% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes around midnight. Low 49 to 53. Southerly wind shifting northerly around midnight with the cold front. Rainfall will average 1/2 to 3/4 inch.

SATURDAY…. A 20% chance of rain showers early.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and cooler. High 59 to 63.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 42 to 46.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 54 to 58.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 39 to 43.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 57 to 61.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 44.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 61 to 65.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 42 to 46.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 60 to 64.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 9 Feb 2012 through Wednesday / 15 Feb 2012…
Temperature… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (2 Feb)…………. 7:21 am
Sunset this evening (2 Feb)………….. 6:09 pm
Sunrise Friday (3 Feb)…………………. 7:20 am
Sunset Friday (3 Feb)………………….. 6:10 pm

….AUSTIN AREA POLLEN COUNT….
…RECORDED THURSDAY / 2 FEBRUARY 2012…
(Note: This is the most recent report that has been provided.
This count is updated as provided on weekdays only and is
courtesy of Austin Allergy Associates and Dr. T. Ray Vaughn
and Dr. P. Dennis Dyer)

Molds….. 1360 gr/cubic meter (Moderate) – Down Since Last Reading
Grasses….. 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
Weeds…… 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Weeds:
…None Reported …
Trees…… 67 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Up Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Trees:
…Cedar 11.. American Elm 44.. Ash 12..

TK’s Weather Discussion (Thu/2Feb2012)

Updated  130pm Thursday / 2 February 2012

…. Upper Air Low Pressure Storm System and Cold Front Late Friday / Friday Night ….
…. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Increase by Late Tonight into Early Friday ….
…. Cooler Temperatures with Some Clearing Due by the Weekend ….

On this Thursday… a cold front extends west southwestward from northern Alabama into northern Louisiana where it becomes a stationary front and extends southwestward over south central Texas and then westward into southwest Texas. As a result of this surface pressure pattern, a light and variable or southerly surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a deepening upper air low pressure disturbance is located over the four corners region. As a result of this pressure pattern, the upper air winds over our area of Texas are moderate southwesterly.

A weak cold front has slipped south of the Austin area in the early morning hours today. This front, however, is transitioning to a warm front which will move northward later today into tonight as the upper level low pressure area to the west approaches. A moist air mass will pick back up over the area in the wake of the warm front over our area. By later tonight into early Friday, low clouds along with patchy fog and drizzle is possible.

The second stronger cold front.. in combination with the strong upper air low pressure disturbance.. is due by later Friday through Friday night with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will actually begin late tonight and peak Friday into Friday night before ending by sunrise on Saturday night. The latest guidance suggests that upwards of 1 inch rainfall expected.

Surface high pressure.. behind Friday’s cold front..  will move settle southward in the wake of the front with cooler temperatures area wide into the weekend into early next week with a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky being the main feature of our weekend weather.

My forecast confidence today through tomorrow and through tomorrow night is high to very high. My forecast confidence for the weekend through the first half of next week is medium (due to the possibility of more cloudiness and even slim rain chances as suggested by some models as weak upper air disturbances move west-to-east across the area).

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see low clouds picking up with some drizzle and fog picking up after midnight. Widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible. Lows in the 60s with a southerly wind. For tomorrow, a mostly cloudy sky with an increasing chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s with southerly wind.

Have a good Thursday night and Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel