Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Month: August 2012

TK’s Austin & South Central Texas Forecast (Fri/17Aug2012)

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Updated 130pm CDT.. Friday / 17 August 2012

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a 20% chance of  rain showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. High 96 to 100. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch or less.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms early.. then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 73 to 77. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch or less.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 94 to 98. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Low 71 to 75. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph. Additional rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 90 to 94.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms early.. then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 71 to 75.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 91 to 95.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of mainly evening rain showers and thunderstorms.. then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 72 to 76.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.  High 92 to 96.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of mainly evening rain showers and thunderstorms.. then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 71 to 75.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 93 to 97.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of mainly evening rain showers and thunderstorms.. then becoming mostly cloudy. Low 71 to 75.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 93 to 97.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 24 August 2012  through Thursday / 30 August 2012…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation…  Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 August)………………. 6:59 am
Sunset this evening (17 August)………………… 8:10 pm
Sunrise Saturday (18 August)……………………. 7:00 am
Sunset Saturday (18 August)…………………….. 8:09 pm

….AUSTIN AREA POLLEN COUNT….
…RECORDED THURSDAY / 16 AUGUST 2012..

(Note: This is the most recent report that has been provided.
This count is updated as provided on weekdays only and is
courtesy of Austin Allergy Associates and Dr. T. Ray Vaughn
and Dr. P. Dennis Dyer)

Molds….. 4830 gr/cubic meter (High) – Up Since Last Reading
Grasses….. 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
Weeds…… 9 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Up Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Weeds:
…Ragweed 4.. Pigweed 5 …
Trees…… 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Trees:
…None Reported…

TK’s Weather Discussion (Fri/17Aug2012)

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Updated 130pm CDT Friday / 17 August 2012

… Increased Cloud Cover and Rain Chances for the Weekend ….
… Rainfall Amounts Around 1 Inch Possible ….
… With Increased Cloud Cover, Temperatures Down a Few Degrees ….

On this Friday… a weak cold front extends from southern Illinois and southern Missouri southwestward into western Arkansas.. southeastern Oklahoma and across the Red River into north Texas and then southwestward into southwest Texas and southern New Mexico. A surface trough.. or a line.. of low pressure extends southward from the front over southwest Texas into northern Mexico. Surface high pressure continues north of the Texas cold front over Nebraska. Other areas of surface high pressure are over the eastern Gulf of Mexico as well the four corners region. As a result of this surface pattern, a southerly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, the upper high pressure ridge, acting like a lid on the atmosphere, has weakened and decreased in size a bit and is located over the southwestern USA with a deepening trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward from the Great Lakes states southward over the eastern half of the USA.  As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are light northwesterly over our area.

As we head into your weekend, the effect of the stable upper level high pressure area (or “lid” on the atmosphere), to our northwest, is weakening locally as low level moisture increases and, as a result, our atmosphere is getting more unstable.

As the weak cold front settles further south, we’ll have all three atmospheric ingredients (moisture, instability and lift) come together overhead for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for our weekend. I’m continuing to increase the cloud cover a bit along with increasing my rain chances slightly for Saturday, Sunday and into Monday. The latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance continues to suggest an average of one inch of beneficial rain could fall.. in a general sense.. across our area between tonight through early next week.

A more stable weather pattern will evolve again once we get into next week with decreased clouds and rain chances.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an otherwise partly cloudy sky with lows in the 70s. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, variable clouds with scattered rain showers and  thunderstorms with highs in the 90s with a southerly wind.

Have a good Friday night and Saturday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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