Special Weather Briefing
Prepared by Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
Issued 605pm CDT  / Sunday, 5 August 2012

…. Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Update (#3) ….

…. Ernesto Weaker and Disorganized ….
…. Overall Forecast Track Through 5 Days Continues to be Shifted More Southward ….
…. Based on Current Forecast Track, Threat to Texas Coast Decreases ….

On this Sunday evening, westward moving tropical cyclone Ernesto.. currently of tropical storm strength with winds of
50 mph sustained/60 mph gusts.. is centered over the Caribbean Sea about 220 miles SSW of Kingston, Jamaica.
Ernesto’s forward speed has decreased.. it is moving westward at 20 mph with a central pressure of  1006mb/29.71 in/hg.

The current forecast intensity/track.. as prepared by the hurricane specialists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center..
indicates that the system will continue westward through the western Caribbean Sea and make landfall by Tuesday evening
on the central and southern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula before emerging back in the Bay of Campache by Thursday then
restrengthening to a hurricane before making landfall a second time along the east coast of Mexico just south of Tampico by
Friday afternoon. After landfall, it will slowly weaken over the mountains of eastern/central Mexico.

There is less uncertainty now regarding the forecast track and intensity of this system. You will notice on the NHC graphic
below that no part of the Texas coast is in the cone of uncertainty at landfall time. While it is still too early to say where Ernesto
will ultimately end up and how strong it’ll be when it gets there, it is becoming more and more clear that the threat to Texas is
decreasing. At the same time, however, the threat to the Bay of Campache and the extreme southwest Gulf of Mexico and
ultimately to areas along the east coast of Mexico are increasing.

Specifically, the effect on the Austin / Bryan-College Station / San Antonio metro areas is expected to be very minimal.. other
than perhaps a better onshore (southeasterly) surface wind flow with a little better chance perhaps of a few more afternoon/
evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Let me make it clear, though, that, barring any change in this system, these rain chances
(at least as I see it now) is no better than 20% for any given location through the next seven days. As well, afternoon highs will
continue in the upper 90s to lower 100s. In other words, our seven day forecast is “more of the same”.

You can see the NHC forecast track.. through the next 120 hours/5days.. at this link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5day?large#contents
(This link will remain active and updated through the life of Ernesto.. so keep this link handy)

All interests around the western Gulf of Mexico, especially from the Mexico coast northeastward into the Lower Rio Grande
Valley of Texas..should continue to pay close attention to the advisories and updated track and intensity forecasts from the
NWS/National Hurricane Center as it regards potential impacts for later this coming week into the weekend.

I’ll continue to monitor this system closely.

tk

Special Weather Briefing
Prepared by Meteorologist Troy Kimmel (www.troykimmelweather.com)
Issued 715am CDT  / Sunday, 5 August 2012

…. Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Update (#2) ….

…. Ernesto Looking a Bit Weaker and More Disorganized ….
…. Overall Forecast Track Through 5 Days Shifted More Southward ….
…. Based on Current Forecast Track, Threat to Middle and Upper Texas Coast Decreasing ….

On this Sunday morning, westward moving tropical cyclone Ernesto.. currently of tropical storm strength..
is centered over the Caribbean Sea about 240 miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica.

The current forecast intensity/track.. as prepared by the hurricane specialists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center..
suggests that the system will continue westward through the Caribbean Sea over the next day or so before turning
a little more west northwestward in the western Caribbean thereafter. Please note that this turn to the west northwest
isn’t as distinct as it was in earlier advisories. In addition, with a more disorganized storm compared to 24 hours ago..
strengthening to hurricane intensity isn’t forecast to occur until late Tuesday night or early Wednesday as the system
moves onto the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula.

You can see the NHC forecast track.. through the next 120 hours/5days.. at this link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5day?large#contents
(This link will remain active and updated through the life of Ernesto.. so keep this link handy)

NHC forecasters continues to point out that there is considerable uncertainty regarding the forecast track and intensity beyond
the two to three day part of the forecast. As a result, while it is too early to say where Ernesto will ultimately end up and how
strong it’ll be when it gets there, it should be pointed out that the continued southward shift in the NHC forecast track does
greatly reduce the threat that the system will end up, with time, in the central gulf of Mexico and further reduces the threat that it will end
up in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. It increases the threat to the Bay of Campache and the southwest Gulf of Mexico and
ultimately to areas along the east coast of Mexico and perhaps as far north as far south Texas with potential landfall following
by Friday into next weekend.

All interests around the western Gulf of Mexico, especially from the Mexico coast northeastward across the lower Texas coast
should be paying close attention to the advisories and updated track and intensity forecasts from the NWS/National
Hurricane Center as it regards potential impacts for late in the coming week into next weekend.

I’ll continue to monitor this system closely.

tk