Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 13 July 2017
.. A Stable Summer Weather Pattern Continuing ..
.. Rain Chances Still Show Up Over the Weekend ..
On the Weather Map…
Surface map… surface high pressure is to the east of the area over the southeastern USA and the northern Gulf of Mexico with a weakening cold front moving southward from central Missouri through central Kansas southwestward into a surface low over the Oklahoma panhandle then across the Texas panhandle into northern New Mexico then northward as a stationary front into western Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.
Upper air map… a zonal (west-to-east) upper air wind pattern continues over the USA with passing upper level low pressure disturbances remaining well north of the USA/Canada border. An upper level high pressure area.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. is centered over the intermountain west and the Rockies. There is a weak upper level low pressure area over the Rio Grande River west northwest of Del Rio with several other upper air disturbances over the lower Mississippi Valley and the southeastern USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are southerly 5 to 15 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
There will continue to be little change in the overall stable weather pattern for south central Texas and the Austin metro area over the next few days. While a few towering clouds are possible primarily in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor and along and south of the IH10 corridor today into this evening and over the next day or so, I do not expect any precipitation locally.
By the weekend into next week, longer range computer model and manual forecast guidance continues to suggest that the upper level high pressure will weaken a bit and settle back north northwestward into the northern Rockies and plains states. This will allow for better moisture flow off of the Gulf of Mexico as a weakening cold front settles southward into Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. As a result, I think we’ll see more cloud cover and a little better rain chances beginning Saturday and continuing Sunday and into the new week. At this time, the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggest rainfall, on average, of 1/4 to 1/2 inch locally for the Saturday through Tuesday time period.
Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 13 July 2017
TODAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 100. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. South southeasterly winds 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 76. South southeasterly winds 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 96. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 76. South southeasterly winds 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any thunderstorm. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 95. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 20 July 2017 through Wednesday / 26 July 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (13 July)…………………………………………….. 6:39 am
Sunset this evening (13 July)……………………………………………… 8:35 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (14 July)………………………………………………… 6:39 am
Sunset tomorrow (14 July)…………………………………………………. 8:34 pm