Updated 130pm CDT Wednesday / 30 May 2012

…. Above Average Afternoon Temperatures Continue ….
…. A Weak Cold Front Expected for the Late Tomorrow into Tomorrow Night ….

On this Wednesday… a ridge of high pressure is located over east Texas and southern Louisiana. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure and an associated stationary front from southeastern Missouri westward to a developing surface low pressure area over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. A dry line extends southward from the Texas panhandle low pressure area into southwest Texas. As a result of this pressure pattern, a southerly surface wind is blowing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a ridge of upper air high pressure has continued to move westward and is now located from the Rio Grande River westward through northern Mexico. A trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure is deepening over the eastern half of the United States. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are increasing from the west northwest over our area.

Well, we’re seeing a little change over our area as the upper air low over the eastern part of the USA becomes stronger. This is resulting, as mentioned above, in an increased west and northwesterly upper level wind across our area. As this pattern evolves, we’ll see a cold front move south southeastward into Texas and initial indications are that the front will move through the local area late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.

As the front moves through the area, given the expected instability and moisture in place, we’ll see a line of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms develop along and just ahead of the front late tomorrow into tomorrow night. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has posted a “slight risk” area for severe thunderstorms.. with the main risks being larger hail ands damaging thunderstorm wind.. for all of our local area for late tomorrow into tomorrow night.

In the wake of the front tomorrow night, skies will remain mostly clear to partly cloudy as temperatures cool only a very few degrees. This dry and stable weather pattern will continue through the weekend into early next week with warming temperatures.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be partly cloudy. Lows in the 70s. Southerly wind. For tomorrow, morning low clouds becoming partly cloudy with scattered late afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the 90s with a southerly wind.

Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@mail.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel