Updated 915am CT – Monday / 20 April 2015

.. Cooler and Drier to Start the Week ..
.. More Unstable Air Mass By Mid and Late Week ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Return Mid and Late Week ..

On this Monday…. a surface cold front extends a surface low over eastern Great Lakes south southwestward through middle Tennessee then into southern Louisiana and into the northwest Gulf of Mexico and into northern Mexico south of Brownsville. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an strong counterclockwise rotating upper air low pressure rough extends from southwest of Hudson Bay southward over the eastern 2/3rds of the country. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.

A drier and cooler air mass has settled into our area in the wake of the drier air that moved into the area yesterday afternoon and the surface cold front that moved through our area in the late afternoon hours yesterday.

With a return south southeasterly surface wind, we’ll see low level moisture to begin to return to the area by tomorrow. Already.. strong westerly upper level winds are bringing high and mid level Pacific moisture.. in the form of mid and high clouds.. to our local area.

Another series of weak cold fronts looks to approach the area from the north by Wednesday through Friday. Even though I don’t see the fronts making their way this far south, increased clouds as well as rain and thunderstorms chances return to the forecast for the period. The latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance suggests the possibility of stronger.. potentially severe.. thunderstorms for parts of Texas (including parts of our local area) for mid and late week. Latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance shows the potential of 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain between now and Saturday.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel