Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 09 April 2015
.. Rain Chances Head Up Through the Weekend ..
.. Another Cold Front Due on Monday ..
.. Additional Rain Chances Mid and Late Next Week ..
On this Thursday…. a low pressure area is over the Oklahoma/Kansas border with a stationary front extending westward from northern Missouri and eastern Kansas through the low and northwestward into Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southward from the low through west Texas. Surface high pressure is off the southeastern seaboard of the USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a trough.. or line.. of developing upper level low pressure is situated from the Colorado/Kansas border southward into west Texas. Another low pressure disturbance is located off the west coast of California and Baja Peninsula. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 30 to 40 mph.
A southerly surface wind flow continues across the area.
With the passing upper air low pressure disturbance.. to our distant northwest.. is combining with a southeastward moving weakening cold front and increasing low level moisture and atmospheric instability to give us better rain and thunderstorm chances beginning today and continuing over the next several days. The highest chances rain chances are tomorrow and again late in the weekend. According to the NWS Storm Prediction Center, there is a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms with a hail/strong thunderstorm wind risk locally late Friday into Friday night. The latest NWS national rainfall guidance continues to suggest upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rain from this weather system late week through the weekend.
Another cold front and passing upper air disturbance is due Sunday into early Monday which will keep precipitation chances into the new week.
At the end of the seven day forecast period and beyond.. another weather system, with better rain chances, will move into our area for the middle and latter part of next week.
Overall.. it looks wet locally over the next seven days with rain chances over much of the forecast period.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through tomorrow and Friday and the weekend with frontal timing, precipitation timing and amounts as well as the any severe thunderstorm risk being issues. My forecast confidence is high for the early part of next week with my confidence falling back to low to medium for the middle and latter part of next week as it regards precipitation probabilities and amounts being the issues.
Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel